财达期货｜贵金属周报：金银重回牛市-20251201

Report Overview - The report is a precious metals weekly report from Cinda Futures, covering the period up to December 1, 2025, with a focus on gold and silver price movements and related influencing factors [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver have returned to a bull market, with silver prices soaring. Multiple factors, including economic data, geopolitical tensions, and Fed policy expectations, are driving the upward trend in precious metal prices. While the long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, short - term profit - taking is advisable for silver due to its sharp rise [2][3][12] Key Points by Category Precious Metal Price Movements - International gold prices have rebounded to around $4,250 per ounce, and international silver prices have soared to around $57 per ounce [3] - Silver prices skyrocketed 5% on the night of last Friday and more than 12% for the whole week, showing a typical short - squeeze rally [11] Economic Data - The Fed's "Beige Book" indicates that job seekers' situation is not optimistic, with half of the 12 surveyed regions reporting a decline in employers' hiring intentions. Many companies are limiting employee numbers through hiring freezes and other means [4] - US retail sales in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slower than the previous month and below expectations. The US consumer confidence index in November dropped to 88.7, a 7 - month low [4] Geopolitical Tensions - The Russia - Ukraine conflict has not reached an end. Trump's proposed peace agreement did not lead to a resolution, and the conflict continues to stimulate the rise in precious metal prices [5][7] Fed Policy Expectations - Fed officials, including New York Fed President Williams, have expressed support for a December rate cut. The probability of a December rate cut has risen from less than 40% to 70%, and according to CME data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December is 86.4%, up 45.6 percentage points from a week ago [9][10] Silver Supply - Demand Imbalance - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory dropped by 58.83 tons in the week of November 24, reaching a low since July 3, 2016. The "cross - border migration" of commodities and increased industrial and reserve demand for silver have caused a short - term supply - demand imbalance, leading to a sharp rise in silver prices [11][12]