聚酯周报：PX预期供需缺口，聚酯震荡偏强-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to the anticipated supply gap of PX. The PX price is supported by gasoline blending value and the stable recovery of the by - product benzene price. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export prospects of polyester products are optimistic due to positive trade policy adjustments in some overseas countries [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX market is firm under multiple factors, with the PX - naphtha spread expanding to $256, while the PX - mixed xylene spread is under pressure, slightly above $100, limiting the space for increasing PX production to improve efficiency [4]. - Demand: The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export inquiries of polyester products have increased significantly, and the domestic polyester export prospects are still optimistic [4]. - Inventory: The PTA port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons this week, and the market is slightly destocking [4]. - Basis: The PTA basis continues to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - Profit: The PX - naphtha spread reaches $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around $200 [4]. - Valuation: The PTA price is at a relatively low - to - neutral level. With the decline in the reformer unit profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4]. - Macro Policy: The macro - policy factor is neutral. Trump announced that the US will take land - based actions against so - called Venezuelan "drug traffickers" [4]. - Investment Viewpoint: There is no obvious driving force, and the market is expected to be mainly stronger [4]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it's advisable to wait and watch, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Crude Oil: Trump claimed to launch a strike against Venezuela, and Russia will discuss the plan details of the Geneva negotiation with the US next week [6][9]. - Gasoline: The US gasoline demand is seasonally weakening, and the gasoline cracking profit is also weakening. Overseas refined oil markets show weakening demand and significant regional differences. North American refinery operating rates have risen to 90%, higher than the five - year average. European gasoline spot prices are under pressure, and regional supply may increase as European refineries gradually resume work [10][17][25]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - Supply and Market Expectation: The PX supply is shrinking, and the strong market expectation affects the market. The domestic reformer oil supply is continuously tight, and the loads of refineries in Asia are also decreasing, but some are expected to resume production by the end of November [28][45]. - Arbitrage Space: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened [38]. - Profit and Production Adjustment: The profit of selective disproportionation has recovered, but the disproportionation profit is suppressed by pure benzene. Some large - scale aromatic hydrocarbon units have reduced or shut down production due to poor economics. The PX - naphtha spread is maintained at $245/ton, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has narrowed to $105/ton [46][52][59]. - Price and Demand: The PX price is stable but tight. The demand is generally healthy, especially the PTA export has new opportunities. The PX price trend is strong, which is significantly beneficial to the PTA market [59][66]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol port inventory is at 730,000 tons. With the continuous decline in coal prices, the ethylene glycol price lacks effective support. New device production increases supply pressure, but the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support downstream demand [81]. - Gasoline: The Asian gasoline profit remains strong [83]. - Polyester: The polyester industry maintains a high load, and the weaving load is optimistic. The export demand may boost the market [91][93].