债期中枢小幅下移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After the recent adjustment, the allocation value of bonds has started to emerge, with the yields of 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds approaching the levels when the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading in late October, increasing the attractiveness to allocation-oriented institutions [8] - The market will focus on the official PMI data for November and the Central Economic Work Conference in December, which may provide new directional guidance for the market [8] - In the short term, the pattern of a ceiling and a floor for bonds is difficult to break, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. If the expectation of an interest rate cut is strengthened at the beginning of next year, the bond market is expected to rise [8] - In the medium to long term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge facing China's economic development. With the marginal decline of the economic pulling effect of land finance and debt-driven models, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue, which is favorable for bond futures [8] - The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, creates a low-interest rate environment, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures were relatively stable at the beginning of the week, but there was a significant turning point on Wednesday, with a sharp decline in the late trading. The decline of long-term contracts was significantly greater than that of short-term contracts. The 30-year treasury bond futures main contract had a single-day decline of 0.86%, and the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts had declines of 0.36%, 0.22%, and 0.05% respectively [4] - The decline was mainly driven by news factors. The market rumor on Wednesday that the central bank's bond purchase scale this month was only 20 billion yuan, significantly lower than market expectations, and the large-scale fund redemption on the same day further exacerbated the market selling pressure. The low volatility background and fragile trading sentiment in the market amplified the decline [4] - Before the significant adjustment on Wednesday, the treasury bond market had been in a low-volatility sideways state for several weeks, lacking a clear trading theme. The traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect did not appear, reflecting investors' lack of confidence in going long due to concerns about the lack of further monetary policy easing and the wait-and-see attitude towards the new regulations on public fund sales [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data and charts on open market operations (including currency issuance, currency withdrawal, and net currency issuance), medium-term lending facilities (including amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, various capital prices (such as deposit-based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, and bond pledged repurchase rates), and spreads, as well as LPR, deposit reserve ratios, and treasury bond and US treasury bond yields and term spreads [10][12][19] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data and charts on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures [45][53][60]