原周报（LG）：原木期货价格低位震荡-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - Log futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level, as the spot price fundamentals continue to weaken, the spot price has dropped to the lowest level of the year, the fourth - quarter shipment is expected to increase, and the median of the December foreign quotation is 116 US dollars [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: From November 24 - 30, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a decrease of 7 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%. The total arrival volume was about 217,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 201,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [4]. - Demand: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 1.83% from the previous week [4]. - Inventory: As of November 21, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.03 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.71% [4]. - Valuation: The current log price is lower than the delivery cost, and the valuation is low [4]. - Investment View: The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy for both single - side and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Price: Log futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The spot price fundamentals continued to weaken, and the spot price dropped to the lowest level of the year. The December foreign quotation had a large span, with a median of 116 US dollars. The fourth - quarter shipment was expected to increase. Overall, the log futures and spot prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - Futures Position: As of November 28, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 24,241 lots, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2601 was 16,638 lots, a 5.4% decrease from the previous week [13]. - Spot Price: As of November 28, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine were 690/750/850 yuan/m³, and the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 730/770/940 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine were 690/750/800 yuan/m³, and the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 730/770/840 yuan/m³ [14]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January - October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's total coniferous log imports from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January - October 2025, China's total coniferous log imports from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [19]. - New Zealand Shipment: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log ships left the port, an increase of 8 from the previous month. The total shipment volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from 1.766 million cubic meters in September. Among them, 41 ships were sent to China, with a shipment volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from 1.472 million cubic meters in September [22]. - Import Cost and Profit: As of December 2025, the CFR quotation of radiata pine was between 112 - 119 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 111 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [26]. - Domestic Inventory: As of November 21, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.03 million cubic meters, a 2.71% increase from the previous week. The total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 2,065,000 cubic meters, a 5.68% increase from the previous week. The total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 831,777 cubic meters, a 0.57% decrease from the previous week [29]. - Domestic Outbound Volume: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,400 cubic meters, a 1.83% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 35,900 cubic meters, a 2.18% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 23,600 cubic meters, a 3.28% decrease from the previous week [32]. - Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit: As of November 28, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1250 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week. The wooden square price in Jiangsu was 1260 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 3.8 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week. The processing profit in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week [35].