美联储官员放鸽，12月降息预期再度升温

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities rebounded with fluctuations, and most varieties in the industrial and agricultural product sectors rebounded. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut significantly increased, Sino-US relations continued to ease, and geopolitical situations had an impact on international oil prices [3]. - Commodities will maintain a volatile range with differentiated trends among varieties. Currently, macro factors are mixed, and there are uncertainties regarding the December interest rate cut, the domestic economic slowdown, and geopolitical changes [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - Review: Domestic commodities rebounded with fluctuations this week. The expectation of a December interest rate cut rose, Sino-US relations improved, and geopolitical situations affected oil prices [3]. - Overseas: Fed officials' dovish remarks increased the probability of a December interest rate cut from 43% to 80%. The US economy shows "K-shaped differentiation," and consumer spending may weaken in Q4. There are developments in the Ukraine peace plan, which affected oil prices [3]. - Domestic: From January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with different growth rates in different sectors. China's foreign direct investment maintained resilient growth from January to October [3]. - Commodity Views: Commodities will maintain a volatile range due to mixed macro factors, including interest rate cut uncertainty, domestic economic slowdown, and geopolitical changes [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - Fed officials' remarks increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. The US economic activity changed little, consumer spending weakened, and there were developments in the Ukraine peace plan affecting oil prices [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - From January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with different growth rates in different sectors. China's foreign direct investment maintained resilient growth from January to October [3][21][25]. PART FOUR: High-Frequency Data Tracking - Data on开工率 of polyester产业链 and高炉开工率, prices of POY and PTA, and agricultural product prices are presented, showing certain trends and changes [34][41][43].