西南期货早间评论-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall Market Outlook: The current domestic economy remains stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy still needs to be strengthened. The market sentiment has significantly improved, and incremental funds are continuously entering the market. Different asset classes have different trends and investment opportunities due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international situations [6][9]. - Asset - Specific Views: - Treasury Bonds: There is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - Stock Index Futures: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - Precious Metals: They are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for opportunities to go long [11][12]. - Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance in rebounding. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [18]. - Ferroalloys: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [21]. - Crude Oil: The main contract presents buying opportunities [24]. - Fuel Oil: The main contract presents buying opportunities [26]. - Polyolefins: Present buying opportunities [28]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to fluctuate [30]. - Natural Rubber: Investors can focus on buying opportunities [32]. - PVC: Pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. - Urea: The downward space is limited [36]. - PX: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [38]. - PTA: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. - Ethylene Glycol: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. - Short - Fiber: May fluctuate with costs in the short term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - Bottle Chips: Expected to fluctuate with the cost side [44]. - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to consumption continuity and mine restart progress [46]. - Copper: May run strongly in the short term. Pay attention to whether it can effectively break through the oscillation range [47][48]. - Aluminum: In a short - term adjustment state, but has long - term resilience [50][51]. - Zinc: Likely to continue the range - bound pattern [52][53]. - Lead: May weakly fluctuate [54]. - Tin: May fluctuate strongly [55]. - Nickel: May fluctuate [56]. - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - Palm Oil: Consider buying on pullbacks [61]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: A bullish approach can be considered for rapeseed oil [63]. - Cotton: The price is expected to be weak, and the upside space is limited [66][67]. - Sugar: Will fluctuate [71]. - Apples: Expected to run strongly [72][73]. - Hogs: Consider holding the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking of previous short positions [74]. - Eggs: Consider waiting and seeing for now [77]. - Corn and Corn Starch: It is advisable to wait and see and wait for the release of supply pressure after transportation recovers. Corn starch may follow the corn market [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had different price changes. The central bank conducted 3013 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day [5]. - Macro - economic Situation: In November, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points, the non - manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index decreased by 0.3 percentage points. The overall economic prosperity level was stable [5]. - Outlook: There is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of different stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - Policy News: Many regions are researching and planning policies to support the sale of completed properties, aiming to increase the proportion of completed property sales [8]. - Outlook: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver had price increases, and there were also price changes in the night session [11]. - Supporting Factors: The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", central bank gold - buying behavior, and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Fed are all favorable for precious metals [11]. - Outlook: They are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for opportunities to go long [11][12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of different steel products are provided [13]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: On the demand side, the long - term downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and the market will enter the off - season. On the supply side, over - capacity persists, and rebar production has decreased slightly. The inventory is higher than last year, and the inventory pressure is obvious [13]. - Outlook: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot prices of different iron ore products are provided [15]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Since October, the daily output of molten iron has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, the domestic production of raw ore is lower than last year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [16]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance in rebounding. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline [18]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, and supply is increasing. The downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is decreasing, and the procurement rhythm is slowing down. For coke, after the fourth price increase, the supply is stable, but the demand from steel mills may weaken due to profit compression [18]. - Outlook: Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [18]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron had different price changes. The spot prices of different ferroalloys are provided [20]. - Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis: The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The cost of ferroalloys is rising. The production of rebar by sample steel mills has decreased, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak, but the overall over - supply situation is easing [20][21]. - Outlook: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [21]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward [22]. - News and Data: There are news about Russia - US negotiations and the possible decision of OPEC+ to maintain oil production levels [22]. - Outlook: The main contract presents buying opportunities [24]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward and temporarily got rid of the annual low [25]. - Market Analysis: The spot discount of Asian fuel oil has deepened, and the progress of the US 28 - point plan is slow, both of which are favorable for fuel oil prices [25]. - Outlook: The main contract presents buying opportunities [26]. Polyolefins - Market Performance: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had a slight increase in quotes, while the LLDPE price in the Yuyao market decreased in some parts [27]. - Demand Analysis: The average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased, but different sub - industries have different trends. The demand for some products is affected by seasons and market conditions [27]. - Outlook: Present buying opportunities [28]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose [29]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The supply of raw materials is abundant, the supply of synthetic rubber is relatively loose, and the demand from tire enterprises is weak [29]. - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate [30]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose [31]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis: The supply is supported by weather and high overseas raw material prices. The demand is affected by enterprise maintenance, and the inventory is slightly increasing [31]. - Outlook: Investors can focus on buying opportunities [32]. PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC rose, and the spot price increased [33]. - Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis: The supply is increasing, the demand from different downstream industries is different, and the cost - profit situation is complex. The social inventory is increasing [33][34]. - Outlook: Pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose [35]. - Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis: The supply has increased, the demand from different downstream products has changed differently, and the cost and profit situation is complex. The inventory is at a certain level [35]. - Outlook: The downward space is limited [36]. PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose [37]. - Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis: The PX load has increased, the import volume has decreased, and the cost is affected by crude oil fluctuations. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and the supply is slightly reduced [37][38]. - Outlook: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [38]. PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose [39]. - Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis: The supply is decreasing, the demand from the polyester industry is relatively stable, and the processing fee is declining. The cost is affected by crude oil and raw material PX prices [39]. - Outlook: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol declined [40]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is limited [40][41]. - Outlook: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose [43]. - Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis: The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand from the downstream industry is stable, and the cost drive is increasing [43]. - Outlook: May fluctuate with costs in the short term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose [44]. - Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis: The supply is at a certain level, the demand from the downstream soft - drink industry is in the off - season, and the export is increasing. The cost is affected by raw material prices [44]. - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate with the cost side [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined [45]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis: The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the social inventory is decreasing [45][46]. - Outlook: Pay attention to consumption continuity and mine restart progress [46]. Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose [47]. - Macro - and Fundamental Analysis: The possible early resignation of the Fed chairman increases the probability of interest rate cuts. The supply of copper ore is growing slowly, and the demand is affected by high prices and substitution effects. The social inventory has decreased [47]. - Outlook: May run strongly in the short term. Pay attention to whether it can effectively break through the oscillation range [47][48]. Aluminum - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose, and the main contract of alumina declined [49]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis: The supply of domestic ore is tight, but the import of ore is increasing. The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level but may increase [49][50]. - Outlook: In a short - term adjustment state, but has long - term resilience [50][51]. Zinc - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose [52]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis: The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the export window has opened, the demand is in the off - season but has some rigid support, and the social inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - Outlook: Likely to continue the range - bound pattern [52][53]. Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead rose [54]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis: The supply of lead concentrate is slightly easing, the demand from the battery market is in the off - season, and the social inventory may stop decreasing [54]. - Outlook: May weakly fluctuate [54]. Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of tin rose [55]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis: The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand has some structural support, and the refined tin inventory is decreasing [55]. - Outlook: May fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract of nickel declined [56]. - Macro - and Fundamental Analysis: The market's expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is increasing. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron is affected, the demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [56]. - Outlook: May fluctuate [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean oil and soybean meal rose. The spot prices of different products are provided [57]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is almost complete, the demand is expected to improve, the soybean crushing volume is high, and the inventory of soybean oil and soybean meal is increasing [57][58]. - Outlook: Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: The market has some price changes, and the export volume of Malaysia and the import volume of China are provided [59]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis: The export of Malaysian palm oil is decreasing, the production may decline seasonally, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level [59]. - Outlook: Consider buying on pullbacks [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: The Canadian rapeseed