长江期货养殖产业周报-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the pig industry, supply pressure remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate narrowly, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices before the Spring Festival and in the first half of next year are not optimistic, while prices in the second half of next year are expected to be relatively strong but with caution [5][54]. - For the egg industry, the marginal improvement of supply - demand looseness is observed, and attention should be paid to spot price guidance. In the short - term, egg prices have support at the bottom, while in the medium - to - long - term, capacity clearance still takes time [6][80]. - For the corn industry, the selling pressure needs to be digested, and caution is needed when chasing high prices on the futures market. In the short - term, there is still selling pressure to release, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year, which limits the upside space [7][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the national spot price was 11.13 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 11.24 yuan/kg, down 0.33 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2501 was 11465 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 01 contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan/ton from last week [5][12][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The average slaughter weight increased by 0.41 kg to 129.22 kg; the fat - standard price difference decreased by 0.10 yuan to 0.54 yuan; the proportion of pigs below 90 kg increased by 0.35% to 4.83%, and the proportion of pigs above 150 kg increased by 0.94% to 6.32% [13]. - Demand - related indicators: The weekly average daily slaughter rate increased by 1.47% to 35.41%; the weekly average daily slaughter volume increased by 6066 heads to 146566 heads; the fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises increased by 0.18% to 85.60%; the slaughter processing profit increased by 1.30 yuan/head to 7.2 yuan/head [13]. - Inventory - related indicators: The frozen - product inventory rate decreased by 0.07% to 20.15%; the pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.37 [13]. - Cost - related indicators: The price of 7 - kg weaned piglets increased by 5.95 yuan/head to 215.95 yuan/head; the price of 15 - kg piglets decreased by 1 yuan/head to 299 yuan/head; the price of binary breeding sows remained stable at 1548 yuan/head; the price of pig feed increased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 2.62 yuan/kg [13]. - Profit - related indicators: The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased by 59.74 yuan/head to - 141.09 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 84.03 yuan/head to - 248.95 yuan/head [13]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows decreased. In October, the official sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%, still 2.31% higher than the normal inventory of 39 million heads [17]. - The production performance improved. In October, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 95%:5%, the farrowing rate of inseminated sows was 79.7%, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.32 [17]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the increase in demand is not obvious. Pig prices will fluctuate narrowly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will remain high before the first half of next year, and prices will be under pressure. In the second half of next year, prices are expected to be relatively strong, but caution is needed [5][54]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month and off - season contracts on rallies; be cautiously bullish on far - month contracts [5][54]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main egg contract 2601 was 3293 yuan/500 kg, up 109 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 653 yuan/500 kg, 49 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday [6][60][80]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The national weekly utilization rate of breeding eggs for laying hens remained unchanged at 57.00%; the average price of laying - hen chicks remained stable at 2.70 yuan/head; the average price of culled hens decreased by 0.08 yuan/jin to 3.80 yuan/jin; the culled - hen slaughter volume increased by 1760000 heads to 21.97 million heads; the age of culled hens decreased by 3 days to 489 days [61]. - Demand - related indicators: The egg shipment volume increased by 115.61 tons to 6216.77 tons; the sales volume in the sample sales areas decreased by 37 tons to 7435 tons [61]. - Inventory - related indicators: The production - link inventory decreased by 0.1 - 0.32 days, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 0.05 - 0.16 days [61]. - Profit - related indicators: The expected profit of laying - hen farming decreased by 4.29 yuan/head to - 27.35 yuan/head; the profit per jin of eggs decreased by 0.01 yuan/jin to - 0.27 yuan/jin [61]. 3.2.3 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and egg prices have support at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, capacity clearance still takes time [6][80]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing long positions on the 01 contract; breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; be cautiously optimistic about the medium - term and still cautious about the long - term [6][80]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2275 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main corn contract 2601 was 2244 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 31 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton stronger than last Friday [7][86][105]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The national grain - selling progress was 30%, 3 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the grain - selling progress in North China was 28%, 1 percentage point faster than the same period last year; the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, 4 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the arrival volume at northern ports increased by 23.1 tons to 73 tons; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 251 vehicles to 804 vehicles [87][88][105]. - Demand - related indicators: The deep - processing enterprise operating rate increased by 0.49% to 61.38%; the corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises increased by 3.84 tons to 129.07 tons; the shipping volume from northern ports increased by 34.4 tons to 74.4 tons [87]. - Inventory - related indicators: The northern - port corn inventory increased by 6 tons to 140 tons, and the southern - port corn inventory decreased by 2.9 tons to 59.9 tons; the corn inventory days of sample feed enterprises increased by 1.6 days to 27.83 days; the corn inventory of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by 2.9 tons to 269.8 tons [87]. - Profit - related indicators: The pig - farming profit decreased by 12.09 yuan to - 147.99 yuan; the laying - hen farming profit decreased by 4.29 yuan to - 27.35 yuan; the Shandong corn - starch processing profit decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton; the theoretical import profit of US corn from the Gulf increased by 103.08 yuan/ton to 315.37 yuan/ton [87]. 3.3.3 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, there is still selling pressure to release. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year, which limits the upside space [7][105]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing high prices on the futures market; grain - holding entities can hedge on rallies; the medium - to - long - term demand will gradually recover, but the upside is limited [7][105].