中辉农产品观点-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Short - term trading strategies: For soymeal, short - term trading is expected to be bullish with limited upside for the main contract; rapeseed meal will be in short - term oscillation; palm oil may stop falling in stages; soybean oil will experience short - term oscillation; rapeseed oil is short - term bullish; cotton is cautiously bullish; jujube will face pressure in rebound; and live pigs will have a short - term rebound [1]. - Long - term trends: For rapeseed meal, the long - term supply - demand situation is strong; for jujube, a bearish attitude is recommended in the long - run under the loose supply - demand pattern; for live pigs, Q4 will likely see a game around the industry's average cash - flow cost [1][14][16]. Summary by Variety Soymeal - Market conditions: The Brazilian planting progress is behind last year, and rainfall is expected to be below normal. Domestic soymeal and soybean inventories are high, but the sales pressure on oil mills has decreased. The issue of US soybean import tariffs remains unresolved [1]. - Price data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3044 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3105.43 yuan/ton, up 8.57 yuan (0.28%) [2]. - Inventory data: As of November 21, 2025, national port soybean inventories were 942.5 million tons, a decrease of 50.10 million tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 714.99 million tons, a decrease of 32.72 million tons (4.38%) from last week. The soymeal inventory was 115.15 million tons, an increase of 15.86 million tons (15.97%) from last week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market conditions: Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory and zero crushing. The short - term supply is driven by the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. The long - term supply - demand is strong, but the near - term port inventory is high [1][6]. - Price data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2452 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.69%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2557.37 yuan/ton, down 9.47 yuan (-0.37%) [4]. - Inventory data: As of November 21, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.19 million tons from last week [6]. Palm Oil - Market conditions: The supply - demand situation is gradually improving. The EU's delay in implementing the deforestation - free law and floods in Southeast Asia have raised expectations of a production - reduction season. However, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November [7][8]. - Inventory data: As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 66.71 million tons, an increase of 1.39 million tons (2.13%) from last week [7]. - Export data: From November 1 - 25, 2025, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products decreased compared to the same period in October [7]. Cotton - Market conditions: US cotton harvesting is nearing completion, and the supply - side story is weakening. The market is trading around the interest - rate cut expectation. In China, the cash - flow of downstream spinning enterprises has improved, and the cotton price has rebounded slightly, but it faces high - inventory and hedging pressure [9][12]. - Price data: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13725 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan (0.62%) from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14896 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.03%) [9]. - Inventory data: The national commercial cotton inventory increased to 417.94 million tons, higher than the same period [9]. Jujube - Market conditions: The new jujube production is clear, and the supply is expected to be in surplus. The downstream demand has not improved significantly. The premium caused by the speculation of production reduction has been mostly squeezed out [14]. - Price data: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9025 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan (-1.37%) from the previous day. The spot price of Kashgar common jujube was 7 yuan/kg, unchanged [13]. - Inventory data: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10848 tons, an increase of 518 tons from last week [14]. Live Pigs - Market conditions: The current supply - demand situation is weak. The near - month contracts are affected by position - limit approaching, and the short - term spot - futures prices have diverged. The Q4 will see a game around the industry's average cash - flow cost [16]. - Price data: The futures price of the main contract (Ih2601) closed at 11465 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-1.04%) from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11640 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.09%) [15]. - Inventory and sales data: The national sample enterprise live - pig inventory increased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased significantly. The number of fertile sows decreased [15].