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Core Views - The current spot sentiment of coking coal is poor, the fundamentals are slightly deteriorated, but the bottom - support of spot prices remains, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December increases, boosting risk appetite, and silver is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. - The supply - demand of rebar is weak, the inventory continues to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to unstable supply and weakening demand [4]. - The economic fundamentals are under pressure, which is favorable for the bond market, but the bond market is expected to enter a fluctuating range [4]. - Gold is expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term and may fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term [5]. - The price of live pigs is expected to continue to adjust weakly after the normal slaughter of farmers [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [7]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short - term [7]. - Methanol futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [8]. - Glass futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. - PVC futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [10][11]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [11]. - Asphalt prices are expected to continue to be weak, and it is advisable to sell at high prices [12]. - Synthetic rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [13]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Inventory: Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 801.3 million tons, an increase of 4.22 million tons; available days are 13.01 days, an increase of 0.04 days. Injection coal inventory is 428.68 million tons, an increase of 1.23 million tons; available days are 12.64 days, an increase of 0.13 days [1]. - Supply: Domestic supply is still tight, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has slightly decreased, while seaborne coal arrivals remain high [1]. - Demand: Coke production has increased, but the purchasing sentiment of the middle and lower reaches is poor [1]. Silver - Market expectation: The market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in December has reached about 85% - 86% [1]. Rebar - Production: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.09%, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points; capacity utilization rate is 87.98%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points; steel mill profitability is 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points; daily hot metal output is 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.60 million tons [3]. - Demand: The capital availability rate of construction sites has weakened, and demand has decreased [3]. Iron Ore - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 15210.12 million tons, an increase of 155.47 million tons; daily port throughput is 330.58 million tons, an increase of 0.66 million tons; the number of ships at ports is 112, a decrease of 8 [4]. - Supply - demand: Supply is affected by hurricanes, and demand is weakening [4]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - Economic data: In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points; comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [4]. Gold - Market news: There are signs that the next Fed chairman may be determined by the end of the year, and a dovish chairman may boost risk appetite [5]. Live Pigs - Production data: As of November 28, the average slaughter weight is 123.66 kg, an increase of 0.06 kg; weekly slaughter operating rate is 34.18%, an increase of 0.18%;外购仔猪养殖利润 is - 248.95 yuan/head, a decrease of 84.03 yuan/head; self - breeding and self - raising profit is - 141.09 yuan/head, a decrease of 59.74 yuan/head; piglet price is 215.95 yuan/head, an increase of 5.95 yuan/head [5]. Palm Oil - Market situation: Indonesian suppliers may postpone palm oil shipments to December, and Malaysia is about to enter the production - reduction season [7]. Soybean Meal - Price: As of November 28, the domestic soybean meal spot price is stable, with Tianjin at 3080 yuan/ton, Shandong at 3010 yuan/ton, Jiangsu at 3000 yuan/ton, and Guangdong at 2990 yuan/ton [7]. - Demand: The domestic breeding industry is weak, which may limit the growth of soybean meal demand [7]. Methanol - Price and inventory: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2110 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; port inventory is 147.93 million tons, a decrease of 6.43 million tons; production enterprise inventory is 35.87 million tons, a decrease of 1.06 million tons; order backlog is 24.63 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons [8]. - Supply - demand: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand has slightly increased [8]. Glass - Price and production: The national average price of float glass is 1090 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton; the weekly average operating rate is 74.52%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the total inventory of sample enterprises is 6236.2 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.49% [9]. - Supply - demand: Enterprise profits are declining, production is expected to decrease, and downstream demand is weak [9]. PVC - Price and production: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4490 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 80.22%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; social inventory is 104.28 million tons, an increase of 0.99% [10][11]. - Supply - demand: Supply is at a high level, demand is average, and cost support is strong [10][11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decision: OPEC+ will suspend production increases from January to March 2026, and may partially or fully resume the daily production increase of 1.65 million barrels in the future [11]. Asphalt - Production and inventory: The capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises is 10.6%, unchanged from the previous week; the inventory of 54 sample asphalt plants is 61.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.0%; the inventory of 104 social warehouses is 108.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% [12]. Synthetic Rubber - Production: In October, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons compared with the previous month; the capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 10.93 percentage points compared with the same period last year [13]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.75%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points [13].
宁证期货今日早评-20251201
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-12-01 05:18