Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3][5]. - The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The inventory situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [8]. - The new sugar - making season in major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase production, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell short at high prices and close positions when the price drops [11]. - The demand for cotton after the peak season is not too bad, and the short - term capital push may not lead to a unilateral trend due to the hedging pressure [15]. - The sentiment of culling laying hens is strong, and the far - month egg futures are strong. In the short term, the futures are strong, but in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, with a short - term long and medium - term short strategy [17]. - The theoretical pig slaughter volume is still large, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short the near - month futures or conduct reverse spreads [20]. By Relevant Catalogs Protein Meal - 行情资讯 - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose, the Brazilian soybean premium increased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans rose. Over the weekend, the domestic soybean meal spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at 3020 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal transactions declined significantly, and the delivery was good. MYSTEEL expects the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills to be 2.1353 million tons this week, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days [2]. - The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from simultaneous growth in supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. The predicted annual inventory - to - use ratio of global soybeans has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to the current 28.94%, providing bottom support [3]. - The new global soybean production has been continuously revised downwards, and the total production is now equal to the total demand, indicating a decrease in global soybean supply compared to the 24/25 season [5]. - 策略观点 - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the crushing margin is under pressure. As it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5]. Fats and Oils - 行情资讯 - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports in November decreased compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in November first increased and then decreased compared with the previous month. On November 28, floods and landslides in Indonesia's Sumatra Island caused at least 106 deaths. Last Friday, domestic fats and oils continued to rebound, and foreign investors continued to reduce their short positions in palm oil. The domestic spot basis was stable [6]. - 策略观点 - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The inventory situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [8]. Sugar - 行情资讯 - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 5400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of new sugar from major domestic sugar - making groups were stable. As of November 27, 21 sugar - mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 36 less than the same period last year. The daily sugar - cane crushing capacity was 150,000 tons, a decrease of 316,000 tons compared with the same period last year. StoneX predicts that the global sugar supply will have a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, the largest since the 2017/18 season. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November 2025 is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year to 1.08 million tons [10]. - 策略观点 - The new sugar - making season in major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase production, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, it is recommended to sell short at high prices and close positions when the price drops [11]. Cotton - 行情资讯 - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose. The closing price of the January contract was 13,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton or 0.62% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also increased slightly. As of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared with the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons compared with the same period last year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% compared with the same period last year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast [13][14]. - 策略观点 - The demand for cotton after the peak season is not too bad, and the short - term capital push may not lead to a unilateral trend due to the hedging pressure [15]. Eggs - 行情资讯 - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mostly stable or slightly increased. The laying hen inventory remained high, the proportion of small eggs gradually decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large under the rotation method. The demand support was limited, but the short - term replenishment at the low price stage may support a slight increase in egg prices [16]. - 策略观点 - The sentiment of culling laying hens is strong, and the far - month egg futures are strong. In the short term, the futures are strong, but in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, with a short - term long and medium - term short strategy [17]. Pigs - 行情资讯 - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices generally rose. The demand did not increase significantly, but the slaughter volume at the end of the month decreased, and farmers were reluctant to sell, supporting the price increase. It is expected that pig prices will continue to be strong today [19]. - 策略观点 - The theoretical pig slaughter volume is still large, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short the near - month futures or conduct reverse spreads [20].
五矿期货农产品早报-20251201
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-01 05:17