Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight night - disk market, important macro, commodity, and financial market information, and upcoming events. It shows that different markets have diverse trends, such as the significant rise in international precious metals, the decline in international oil prices, and various changes in other commodity and financial sectors. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Disk Market Trends - International precious metal futures soared, with COMEX gold futures up 1.59% at $4256.4/ounce, weekly up 4.34% and monthly up 5.51%, and COMEX silver futures up 6.06% at $57.085/ounce, hitting a new high, weekly up 14.37% and monthly up 17% [5] - International oil prices dropped across the board, with US crude down 1.05% at $58.48/barrel, weekly up 0.72% and monthly down 4%, and Brent crude down 0.87% at $62.32/barrel, weekly up 0.61% and monthly down 2.82% [6] - Most London base metals rose, including LME tin up 3.31% at $39300/ton, LME copper up 2.16% at $11175.5/ton etc., while LME nickel and lead declined slightly [6] - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with propylene and plastic up over 1%, while soda ash, caustic soda, and glass down over 1% [8] Important Information Macro Information - From January 1, 2026, the application for hedging trading position limits for contracts with the last trading day as the 15th of the contract month on SHFE should be made between the first trading day of the second - last month before the delivery month and the last trading day of the first - last month before the delivery month [10] - From January 1, 2026, SHFE futures company members, overseas special brokerage participants, and overseas intermediaries are not subject to position limits, which can be adjusted according to market conditions [11] - Wang Yi will visit Russia for the 20th round of China - Russia strategic security consultations on December 1 - 2, 2025 [11] - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 ppts from last month; non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.6 ppts; composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 ppts, indicating overall stable economic activity [11] Energy and Chemical Futures - From December 5, 2025, the fuel surcharge for domestic flights will be increased to $20 for routes under 800 km and $40 for those over 800 km [14] - In November, domestic photovoltaic glass production decreased by 4.07% month - on - month. In December, supply is expected to increase by 4.46% month - on - month, but demand continues to decline, increasing supply - surplus risks [14] - OPEC+ may pause production increase in Q1 2026, and stick to the moderate production increase plan in December [14] Metal Futures - JPMorgan expects aluminum prices to approach $3000/ton in H1 2026, driven by high copper prices and supply - side risks [16] - The rumor of Alphamin's production interruption is untrue, and its Bisie mine is operating normally [16] - CSPT members will cut copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026 to improve the copper concentrate supply - demand situation [18] - This week, national industrial silicon production was about 76,500 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 52.68% [19] - Codelco will offer a record - high premium of over $500/ton for copper to US customers in 2026 [20] - From January 1, 2026, alumina futures will adjust position limits [20] - LME will cut customer electronic trading and clearing fees by 7.4% - 8.5% [21] - The government will regulate the power and energy - storage battery industry [21] - JinkoSolar has no plan to acquire polysilicon production capacity for now [22] - Last week, copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc inventories on SHFE decreased, while tin and nickel inventories increased [22] - In October, Chile's copper production decreased by 7.0% year - on - year to 458,405 tons [24] - In November, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 3% month - on - month and 49% year - on - year, and lithium iron phosphate production increased by 4.7% month - on - month and 44% year - on - year [24] - In November, domestic silver production decreased by about 3.63% due to a smelter's maintenance [24] Black - Series Futures - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, down 1.10 ppts from last week and 0.53 ppts from last year, and the daily hot - metal output was 2.3468 million tons, down 16,000 tons from last week [26] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai will cut coke prices on December 1, 2025 [26] - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 152.1012 million tons, up 1.5547 million tons, and the daily handling volume was 3.3058 million tons, up 66,000 tons [27] - The price of Mongolian coking coal decreased in the November 28 auction [27] - Huayang Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary has obtained all licenses and officially entered production [28][29] - In November 2025, the coking - coal long - term contract floating value increased by $78/ton (5.3%) [30] - The government held a meeting on coal utilization and energy supply [30] - This week, the total steel inventory in 38 cities was 8.7276 million tons, down 142,000 tons (1.60%) [31] - In November 2025, the steel industry PMI was 48%, down 1.2 ppts, and the industry is expected to have stable - to - decreasing demand and stable prices in December [31] Agricultural Futures - As of the week ending November 28, self - breeding and self - raising pig farming had a loss of $147.99/head, and purchasing piglets for farming had a loss of $248.82/head [33] - Agroconsult expects Brazil's soybean production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.1 million tons [34] - As of November 26, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 36%, compared with 24.6% last week and 45% last year [36] - In the 48th week (November 22 - 28), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2038 million tons, with an operating rate of 60.63%, lower than expected [36] - Indonesian suppliers expect to cut palm - oil export taxes by over $50/ton in December and postpone 310,000 tons of shipments from November to December [37] - As of the week ending October 16, US soybean and corn export net sales increased [37] - US private exporters reported sales of 312,000 tons of soybeans to China and 273,988 tons of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery [38] Financial Market Finance - In November 2025, the new - established public - fund scale reached $96.616 billion, with 136 new funds, and equity funds were the main force [40] - In October 2025, the private - fund scale reached $22.05 trillion, a record high. The private - securities investment fund scale exceeded $7 trillion for the first time, and all fund types grew [41][42] - In December, brokerage firms' golden - stock lists focus on electronics, power equipment, etc., and they are bullish on the market in the long - term [42] - In November 2025, over 1500 stocks were surveyed by institutions, with Luxshare Precision having the most surveys [42] - Regulatory authorities hold delisted companies accountable. Since last year, 91 delisted companies were investigated and 73 were fined $2 billion [42] - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on resource/traditional manufacturing re - valuation and corporate overseas expansion before significant fundamental changes [43] - CITIC Construction Investment believes in a slow - bull market, suggesting to layout for the cross - year market in December, focusing on sectors like non - ferrous metals and AI [43] - Moore Threads is about to go public, and some wealth - management products are allocated [43] Industry - In November 2025, the domestic steel industry PMI was 48%, down 1.2 ppts, and the industry is expected to have stable - to - decreasing demand and stable prices in December [45] - In November 2025, the Chinese auto - dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up 3.8 ppts year - on - year and 3.0 ppts month - on - month. The estimated passenger - car sales in November were about 2.15 million [45] - The 2025 movie box office exceeded $48 billion, and over 50 movies are scheduled for the New - Year's Eve season [46] - The construction of the conventional islands of Units 1 and 2 of the Guangdong Lufeng Nuclear Power Project has started [46] Overseas - Trump will revoke all executive orders signed by Biden with an automatic pen, and the specific scope is unknown [47] - US - Ukraine talks were productive, and the US will strengthen diplomacy, with an envoy expected to visit Moscow [47][48] - There are signs that Trump may decide the next Fed chair before the end of the year, and the market reacts positively [48] - Goldman Sachs believes the Fed will cut interest rates at the December 9 - 10 meeting, with a market - pricing probability of about 85% - 86% for a 25 - basis - point cut [49] - In South Korea, the proportion of single - person households exceeded 36% last year [50] Commodity - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026 and will hold a meeting on June 7, 2026 [51] Bond - In October 2025, the total bond issuance was $6357.46 billion, including $1169.55 billion of national bonds, $560.47 billion of local - government bonds, etc. [52] - In November 2025, the issuance of local - government new special bonds increased by 71% month - on - month to about $492.192 billion [52] - As of November 28, 2025, financial institutions' green - bond issuance exceeded 240 in number and $640 billion in scale, doubling from 2024 [54] - As of late October 2025, the global green - bond issuance decreased by 11% year - on - year, while China's increased by 92% to $101.8 billion, accounting for 20% globally [54] Upcoming Events - At 09:05, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech in Nagoya - At 09:20, 338.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will mature - At 23:30, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra will give a speech - The 2025 "Artificial Intelligence +" Industry Ecology Conference will be held in Beijing from December 1 - 3 [56]
冠通期货资讯早间报-20251201
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-01 05:14