Report Title - "Hualian Futures PVC Monthly Report: Weak Reality, Strong Expectations, Focus on Bottom Support" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - 11 - month PVC futures main contract continued to fall to a new low this year, with a four - consecutive - month decline on the monthly line, approaching the historical low since the futures listing. The overall situation of the commodity sector was weak, but there was a rebound at the end of the month due to low - level valuation repair and short - position reduction [9]. - Supply increased in November, with expected production of 213.54 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate was expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. In December, regular maintenance will further decrease [9]. - Demand entered the traditional off - season in November, with the overall downstream operating rate at 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. Exports showed different trends, with PVC powder exports increasing and PVC flooring material exports decreasing. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports [9]. - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. Futures registered warrants decreased from the high level [9]. - From the raw material side, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene remained weakly stable, with insufficient valuation drive, but the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali continued to decline. The supply - demand situation maintained a weak reality and strong expectations. Externally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increased again, and risk assets performed well. Technically, PVC bottom - rebounded and broke through short - term moving averages, gradually stabilizing [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Viewpoint and Strategy Market Review - In November, the PVC futures main contract continued to fall to a new low this year, with a four - consecutive - month decline on the monthly line, approaching the historical low since the futures listing. It fell in the first and middle of the month and rebounded in the late of the month. The decline was driven by weak supply - demand, increased supply, off - season domestic demand, insufficient valuation drive, and a volatile external macro - environment. The rebound at the end of the month was due to low - level valuation repair and short - position reduction [9]. Supply - As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 2.902 billion tons. In 2025, the cumulative production from January to November is expected to be 2.0245 billion tons, a 4.38% year - on - year increase. In November, the expected production is 213,540 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate in November is expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. In December, regular maintenance will decrease due to the cold weather in the north [9][24]. Demand - In November, the overall downstream operating rate was 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. It entered the traditional off - season, and construction in the north was restricted. From January to October, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.2337 million tons, a 48.88% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative export of PVC flooring materials was 3.46 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year decrease. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports [9]. Inventory - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. Futures registered warrants decreased from the high level [9]. Viewpoint - From the raw material side, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene remained weakly stable, with insufficient valuation drive, but the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali continued to decline. The supply - demand situation maintained a weak reality and strong expectations. Externally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increased again, and risk assets performed well. Technically, PVC bottom - rebounded and broke through short - term moving averages, gradually stabilizing [9]. Strategy - Aggressive investors can refer to the medium - term long - position plan for the V2605 contract, while conservative investors can buy put options for protection [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Not elaborated in detail in the report 3. Spot - Futures Market - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC futures first decreased and then increased in November, and the 5 - 9 spread weakened. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintained a contango pattern, indicating weak reality and strong expectations. The 9 - 1 spread first increased and then decreased, and the basis of the main contract weakly sorted and slightly rebounded, with the futures in a slight contango [17][19]. 4. Supply Side Production Capacity and Output - The effective PVC production capacity is 2.902 billion tons. In 2025, the cumulative production from January to November is expected to be 2.0245 billion tons, a 4.38% year - on - year increase. In November, the expected production is 213,540 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase [24]. - The effective calcium - carbide - method production capacity is 2.025 billion tons, accounting for about 69.8%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 1.475 billion tons, a 1.86% year - on - year increase. In October, the production was 146,690 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month increase but a 0.83% year - on - year decrease [27]. - The effective ethylene - method production capacity is 877 million tons, accounting for about 30.2%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 549.52 million tons, an 11.25% year - on - year increase. In October, the production was 66,120 tons, an 11.78% month - on - month increase and a 23.17% year - on - year increase [31]. Operating Rate and Maintenance - The average operating rate of PVC in November is expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The loss due to maintenance in November was about 20,900 tons. In December, regular maintenance is expected to be 208 tons. The operating rate of the calcium - carbide - method increased in November, while that of the ethylene - method decreased due to maintenance in some plants [35][38]. 5. Demand Side Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio - From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.71945 million tons, a 1.72% year - on - year decrease. The sales - to - production ratio in November fluctuated downward [48]. Downstream Operating Rate - In November, the overall downstream operating rate was 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The average operating rate of pipe enterprises was 39%, a 0.15 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 2.16 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The operating rate of profile enterprises was 36%, a 4.5 - percentage - point month - on - month increase but a 2.95 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of soft - product enterprises was 71%, a 0.61 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease [52][55]. Exports - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.2337 million tons, a 48.88% year - on - year increase, mainly sold to India, Vietnam, and the UAE. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports. The cumulative export of PVC flooring materials was 3.46 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year decrease, mainly sold to Europe and the United States [59][61]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, the new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, the housing completion area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year, and the commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year. In October, the single - month year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 11.7%, a further decline from - 8.1% in September [64]. 6. Inventory - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. The enterprise inventory increased by 3.07% month - on - month, and the futures registered warrants first increased and then decreased, still at the highest level in the same period [69][73]. 7. Valuation Raw Material Prices - In November, the price of semi - coke rebounded but was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The price of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly downward and was at the weakest level in the same period. The price of ethylene fluctuated slightly downward and was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The price of vinyl chloride was weakly stable and at the weakest level in the same period [79][82]. Product Profits - In November, the loss of calcium - carbide - method PVC continued to expand, and the loss of ethylene - method PVC was also large, still at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and significantly decreased year - on - year [90][94].
华联期货PVC月报：弱现实强预期，关注底部支撑-20251201
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-12-01 05:29