股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)：市场情绪回暖，股指震荡修复-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The index is in the process of bottom - building and fluctuating. Traders are advised to choose the right time to go long. The recent market adjustment provides an opportunity for the index to rise further next year. Traders can gradually establish long positions during the market adjustment phase and use the discount structure of index futures to improve the probability of long - term investment success. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - to late December, which will provide key guidance for policy focus and market capital layout in 2026 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Drives - Economic and Corporate Earnings: Slightly bearish. The PMI data is mixed. The official manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, with a slight improvement in supply and demand, but the non - manufacturing business activity index fell to the contraction range [3] - Macro Policy: Slightly bullish. Six departments issued a plan to promote consumption, aiming to optimize the consumer goods supply structure and enhance the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth [3] - Overseas Factors: Slightly bullish. The likely new Fed Chair is dovish, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut has risen from about 60% last week to 89% [3] - Liquidity: Neutral. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 1347.4 billion yuan compared with the previous week [3] - Investment View: The index is in the process of bottom - building and fluctuating. Traders can choose the right time to go long, and focus on the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - to late December [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Bottom - building and fluctuating, choose the right time to go long. Pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3.2 Part Two: Index Market Review - Index Performance: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.64% to 4526.7; the SSE 50 rose 0.47% to 2969.6; the CSI 500 rose 3.14% to 7031.6; the CSI 1000 rose 3.77% to 7334.2 [5] - Futures Performance: The IF main contract of the CSI 300 rose 1.46%, the IH main contract of the SSE 50 rose 0.44%, the IC main contract of the CSI 500 rose 2.71%, and the IM main contract of the CSI 1000 rose 3.19% [6] - Industry Index Performance: Most Shenwan primary industry indices rose. The communication, electronics, comprehensive, media, and light manufacturing sectors led the gains, while only the banking and transportation sectors fell [8] - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of major index futures decreased. For example, the trading volume of the CSI 300 futures decreased by 21.81%, and the open interest decreased by 6.26% [12] - Spread Performance: The spread between the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 was at the 93.6% historical quantile level, and the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at the 47.9% historical quantile level [20] 3.3 Part Three: Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - Funding and Macro - liquidity: The central bank conducted 15118 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net withdrawal of 1642 billion yuan. Next week, 15118 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire [26] - Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading: As of November 27, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 24645.6 billion yuan, an increase of 107.3 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total trading volume was 11.6%, at the 96.2% quantile level in the past decade [32] 3.4 Part Four: Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - Macroeconomic Indicators: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%. The growth rate of industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and other indicators showed different trends [35] - Real Estate: The real estate investment growth rate continued to decline, and the prices of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities showed certain fluctuations [35] - Consumption: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods showed a certain slowdown, and the growth rates of different consumer goods categories varied [39] - Corporate Earnings: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent company and the return on net assets of different indices and industries showed different trends [48][49] 3.5 Part Four: Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - Macro - policy Trends: Multiple departments have issued a series of policies to promote consumption, optimize real estate policies, and support economic development. For example, six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand [53] 3.6 Part Five: Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In October, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4%. The unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000 [63] - Trump Team's Actions: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have led to trade frictions between the US and other countries, especially China, and have also faced some legal challenges [70][72] 3.7 Part Six: Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - Index Valuation: As of November 21, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.9 times, 11.9 times, 31.1 times, and 44.8 times respectively, at the 77.2%, 87.7%, 67.2%, and 64.2% quantile levels since October 2014 [78] - Sector Valuation: Different sectors showed different levels of return on net assets, growth rates of main business income, and price - to - earnings ratios [82]