原油周报（SC)：俄乌和平协议摇摆，国际油价震荡表现-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the three major monthly reports are pessimistic about demand forecasts. The long - term supply - demand situation remains bearish. With the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, oil prices will still fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - Long Term): EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC and IEA show different trends in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production in October 2025. Overall, the supply situation is bearish [3]. - Demand (Medium - Long Term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, with an overall neutral view [3]. - Inventory (Short Term): As of the week ending November 21, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased. The inventory situation is neutral [3]. - Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - Long Term): OPEC+ may maintain the oil production level, and Saudi Arabia's production has reached a high level in recent years, showing a bearish trend [3]. - Geopolitics (Short Term): The signals from the US and Russia regarding the Venezuela and Ukraine issues put downward pressure on oil prices, showing a bearish trend [3]. - Macro - Finance (Short Term): The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, and the situation is neutral [3]. - Investment View: Bearish on the oil market [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Rebound and short. Arbitrage: Wait and see [3]. PART TWO: Futures Market Data - Market Review: This week, oil prices fluctuated. The possible Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and OPEC+ production increase operations pressured the oil market. US refinery operating rates remained high, but macro - demand growth slowed. WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil showed different price trends [6]. - Monthly Spread & Internal - External Spread: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [9]. - Forward Curve: The near - month spread strengthened [23]. - Cracking Spread: The cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, strengthened [26][38]. PART THREE: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: In October 2025, global crude oil production decreased. Different organizations' data on OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production vary. The US weekly crude oil production decreased, imports increased, and exports decreased [59][84]. - Inventory: US commercial inventories increased, and Cushing inventories decreased. Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [85][94]. - Demand: In the US, gasoline implied demand rebounded, and refinery operating rates increased. In China, refinery weekly crude oil processing volume decreased, but the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries increased [112][120]. - Macro - Finance: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December decreased, and the US dollar index rebounded [134]. - CFTC Positioning: The speculative net short position of WTI crude oil increased [138].