粕类周报：区间震荡，关注南美叙事-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "Oscillation" rating for the investment view of the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the weather changes in South America. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for the single - side and spot basis. If there are no significant weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to face pressure under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil from December to January, which will drag down the pricing of domestic bean meal. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release situation [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The USDA's current forecast for the 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September. CONAB predicts that the new - crop production in Brazil in 2025/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 22, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 78%. As of November 26, the soybean planting progress in Argentina was 36%. Short - term weather has no obvious drought problems, but attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern on rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina in December. From December to January, domestic soybean and bean meal are expected to seasonally destock. The domestic bean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain, and the reserve release situation needs to be monitored. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink. The global rapeseed production is expected to have a recovery increase in 2025/26 [5]. - Demand: For livestock and poultry, the short - term high inventory is expected to be maintained, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Bean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness. Recently, the downstream trading of bean meal is normal, and the提货 performance is good, while the downstream trading and提货 of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are at historically high levels in the same period, the destocking of bean meal inventory is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to accelerate destocking from December to January. The number of days of bean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is continuously destocking [5]. - Basis/Spread: The basis is neutral [5]. - Profit: The crushing profit of new - crop soybean purchases in China is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [5]. - Valuation: From the perspective of the basis, the recent price of the bean meal futures is at a moderately high valuation level [5]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The China - US soybean procurement agreement has been reached, and China has begun to purchase US soybeans successively, but the quantity and time of purchases are uncertain, which provides support for the US market [5]. - Investment View: The market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is a single - side oscillation and a positive spread between M3 and M5. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of粕类 - Inventory - to - Use Ratio: In November, the stock - to - use ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased, and the global soybean stock - to - use ratio also decreased. The stock - to - use ratio of rapeseed decreased [28][34]. - Planting Progress: As of relevant dates, the soybean planting rate in Brazil and the planting progress in Argentina are as mentioned above. There are also data on the global rapeseed production, production distribution, and Brazilian planting progress, etc. [5][38][44]. - Domestic and Foreign Market Data: The US soybean domestic crushing profit has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume are presented in the data. The US soybean export sales progress is slow, and there are also data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean gross profit, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and import crushing profit. The domestic soybean and rapeseed import volumes, inventory data, oil mill operating rates, crushing volumes, bean meal and rapeseed meal trading volume,提货 volume, price difference data, feed production volume, and livestock and poultry breeding profit and related data are also provided [47][54][58].