集运指数欧线周报（EC）：12月运价落地不佳，EC弱势震荡-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates in December landed poorly, and the EC showed a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. - The future market trend will present a weak and volatile pattern. The core driving factors include the landing quality of December freight rates, the implementation strength of the January price increase letter, and the seasonal changes in cargo volume [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Logic: - Spot freight rates: Negative. In early December, MSK quoted $2,200, HPL quoted $2,150, OOCL quoted $2,400, CMA quoted $2,650, and ONE quoted $2,200 [4]. - Political and economic factors: Negative. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd have no specific time to adjust the "Gemini" route; CMA CGM's self - operated ships' return journey is almost 90% resumed, but the west - bound first - leg resumption has not increased; the Suez Canal is expected to fully recover ship traffic and normalize revenue by the end of 2026; Sino - US competition affects third - country trade agreements [4]. - Capacity supply: Neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, in October was 245,000, in November was 265,000, and in December was 290,000 [4]. - Demand: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, and there is a differentiation in loading rates between alliances [4]. - Investment Viewpoint: Weak and volatile. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the trends of the European line index, the US West line index, and the US East line index through charts, including SCFIS, SCFI, and CCFI [8]. 3.3 Static Capacity - Order Volume: Charts show the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [13]. - Delivery Volume: Charts display the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [16][18]. - Demolition Volume: Charts present the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [17][19]. - Future Delivery: Charts show the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities by year, quarter, etc. [22][24][25]. - Ship - breaking Price: Charts display the ship - breaking price of container ships in different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change [29]. - Second - hand Ship Price: Charts show the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of different - age and different - capacity container ships [35][37][39]. - Existing Capacity: Charts present the existing capacity of container ships in terms of total volume, different loading capacities, ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofit ratios, average age, and ship - breaking average age [44][47][51]. 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports): Charts show the total capacity deployment, the capacity deployments of PA + MSC, GEMINI, MSC, and OCEAN on the Shanghai - European base port route from week 13 to week 28 [59][61][63]. - Desulfurization Tower Installation: Charts display the situation of container ships with installed desulfurization towers (in TEU, number of ships, and percentage), those under installation, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships [70][73][74]. - Idle Capacity: Charts show the idle capacity of container ships (in TEU, number of ships, and percentage), idle capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle capacity, and capacity under desulfurization tower installation [78][79][83].