沥青（BU）：进入淡季，供需双减

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the asphalt market is "weak shock", and the trading strategy for the single - side is also "weak shock", with no arbitrage strategy recommended [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in the off - season with both supply and demand decreasing. Supply is bearish, demand is neutral, inventory is bullish, and cost is bearish. The overall trend of asphalt continues to follow the fluctuations of crude oil, with supply still high year - on - year and demand declining [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, the asphalt market supply showed an increasing trend, driven by refinery restarts and import supplements. Capacity utilization increased, and the scale of maintenance of asphalt units shrank. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [4]. - Demand: This week, asphalt demand showed regional differentiation, mainly driven by rigid demand. The demand in the north was affected by low - temperature weather, while that in the south was relatively stable. Modified asphalt demand also varied by region [4]. - Inventory: This week, the overall asphalt inventory decreased, including both factory and social inventories. Next week, factory inventories are expected to continue to decline, while trader inventories may increase [4]. - Cost: This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated downward. Geopolitical tensions eased, and inventory changes affected oil prices. The average oil price this week decreased compared with last week [4]. - Investment and Trading Strategy: The investment view is "weak shock", and the single - side trading strategy is also "weak shock". Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - It shows the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025, as well as the basis of asphalt in main regions from 2024 - 2025 [12][13][17]. 3.4 Supply - Scheduling Expectation: It shows the monthly asphalt production and scheduling in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, and the annual production in different regions from 2021 to 2025 [20][24][27]. - Capacity Utilization: It presents the capacity utilization of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39]. - Maintenance Loss: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [43]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [46][50][51]. 3.6 Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in different regions of China from 2022 to 2025 [55][58]. - Social Inventory: It shows the social inventory in different regions of China from 2022 to 2025 [61]. 3.7 Demand - Shipment Volume: It shows the asphalt shipment volume in different regions of China from 2022 to 2025 [64]. - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 - 2025, as well as the modified asphalt operating rate in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [66][70][73].