国贸期货蛋白数据日报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - China's purchasing demand supports the US market, and the domestic market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes in South America. Weather speculation will be bullish for the single - side and spot basis. Without obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from December to January under the expectation of a Brazilian bumper harvest, dragging down the domestic soybean meal pricing. The 103 - 105 spread is expected to be in a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release situation [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - 43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis: On November 28th, the basis in Dalian was 96 (up 21), in Tianjin was 56 (up 21), in Rizhao was - 24 (down 9), in Zhangjiagang was - 14 (up 11), in Dongguan was - 44 (up 11), in Zhanjiang was - 24 (up 31), and in Fangcheng was - 44 (up 11) [4] - Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis: In Guangdong on November 28th, it was 84 (up 121), and MJ - 5 was 199 (down 18) [4] - Spread Data: RM1 - 5 was 37 (down 18), the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the main - contract spread was 592 (up 6). The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 435 (down 127) [5] 3.2 Import and Inventory Data - Import Data: The 2025 imported soybean's on - paper gross profit per ton was given, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.0420. The on - paper crushing profit per ton was - 181.00 yuan, with a 240 - cent (per bushel) change. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium showed different values for each month [5] - Inventory Data: Included China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, with data spanning from 2020 - 2025 [5][6] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: USDA's current forecast for the 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further lowered due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September. The predicted 25/26 Brazilian new - crop output is 1.776 billion tons. As of November 22nd, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 78% (last week 60%, last year's same period 83.3%, five - year average 75.8%). As of November 26th, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 36% (last week 24.6%, last year's same period 45%). Short - term weather has no obvious drought problem, but the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern on rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina in December needs attention. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally destock, and the domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain, requiring attention to reserve release [7][8] - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, with no obvious capacity reduction, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and recent downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal with good pick - up performance [8]