烧碱周报：现货价格下跌，盘面震荡偏弱-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for caustic soda is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are declining and the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply side has seen an increase in production due to reduced maintenance, while the demand side has a decline in alumina production and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory has been accumulating, and profits are under pressure, resulting in an overall market with no clear short - term driving force, expected to be mainly oscillating [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average utilization rate of the production capacity of sample enterprises with a caustic soda capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. Loads in North China, Central China, and East China all increased [3] - Demand: Alumina production decreased, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 91.29%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20%. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02% [3] - Inventory: Recently, downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods was poor, leading to an accumulation of caustic soda inventory. Factory inventory was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 29.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.01% [3] - Basis: The basis of the current main contract was around 57, and the futures price was at a discount [3] - Profit: The weekly average profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70%. The price of liquid chlorine was stable, while the price of caustic soda decreased, resulting in a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3] - Valuation: The spot price was neutral, and the absolute futures price was low. The near - month contract was near par [3] - Macroeconomic Policy: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the futures market traded based on fundamentals [3] - Investment View: In the short term, there was no clear driving force for the futures market, which was expected to mainly oscillate [3] - Trading Strategy: There were no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategies recommended for the time being [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures Market: The Shandong spot market was weak this week, and the bottom support of the futures market was weak. In the short term, with less future maintenance and the impact of new production capacity, supply pressure increased. Alumina production continued to decline, and the procurement rhythm of caustic soda slowed down, leading to an increase in factory inventory pressure. Spot prices were expected to decline in an oscillating manner [6] - Position: The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [24] 3.3 Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Caustic Soda - Electricity Price: Coal supply was tight, leading to an increase in electricity prices [32] - Device Loss and Production: The loss of devices decreased, and production in North China increased due to reduced maintenance [35][37] - Chlor - Alkali Profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali decreased [38] - Downstream Price: The price of alumina declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [41] - Alumina: The production of alumina recovered, but inventory accumulated. The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profits were good and stable year - on - year [53][64] - Non - Aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [65][66] - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The production rate of the liquid chlorine downstream industry rebounded [73] - Subsequent Maintenance Information: Multiple enterprises in East China, Central China, and Southwest China had maintenance plans from November 2025 to January 2026 [77]