周度观点精粹-20251201

Report Overview - This is a weekly view summary from CITIC Futures Research Institute, covering various commodity sectors and providing short - term and medium - term outlooks for each commodity. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for each commodity, mainly including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", and "oscillating weakly". 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a state of shrinking volume, with potential unlocking and reduction pressure, and a policy window period. Capital is congested and waiting to be released, suggesting a long - term and short - term investment strategy with a dumbbell structure. - For different commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, policy, and macro - economic environment, showing different trends of oscillation, oscillation strongly, or oscillation weakly. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - Stock Index: Market conditions suggest an oscillating trend [3]. - Treasury Bonds: With the central bank's bond trading and potential implementation of total - volume monetary policy tools, the market is expected to oscillate strongly in the fourth quarter. Current suggestions are for curve steepening and arbitrage opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Weekly attention is on US PMI and ADP employment data. The price ranges for London gold are [4000, 4400] and for London silver are [53, 60], showing an oscillating trend [3]. Base Metals - Copper: Supply constraints and increasing supply disturbances lead to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - Aluminum: Short - term macro - mood fluctuations and a stable fundamental situation result in an oscillating strongly trend. In the medium - term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the price center is expected to rise [3]. - Alumina: Excess supply in reality but low - level valuation leads to an oscillating trend [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: Short - term cost support and stable supply - demand result in an oscillating strongly trend. In the medium - term, strengthened cost support and potential policy disturbances also lead to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - Zinc: Rising inventory, "squeezing position" situation, weakening downstream demand in the off - season, and high supply lead to an oscillating trend [3]. - Tin: Tight supply at the mine end provides strong price support, resulting in an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - Lead: High procurement demand, production decline due to smelter maintenance, and potential supply shortage lead to an oscillating trend [3]. - Nickel: Loose current supply - demand leads to a short - term oscillating weakly trend. Uncertainty in future supply from Indonesia means a medium - to - long - term oscillating trend [3]. - Stainless Steel: Fundamental factors and cost support lead to an oscillating trend [3]. New Energy Metals - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term tight supply - demand balance, medium - term supply surplus, and recent supply gap lead to wide - range price fluctuations and an oscillating trend [3]. - Polysilicon: Policy support and weakening demand result in a wide - range oscillating trend. Attention is on year - end policy signals and the warehouse receipt registration process [3]. - Industrial Silicon: Potential demand decline in the organic silicon industry and inventory pressure lead to an oscillating trend. Attention is on new warehouse receipt registration progress [3]. - Cobalt: Escalating conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo increase potential risks, leading to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. Energy - Crude Oil: Oscillating and waiting for guidance from OPEC+ meetings and geopolitical factors [3]. - Natural Gas: European gas prices are oscillating, and US gas prices may be strongly oscillating in the short - term [3]. - Steam Coal: Attention is on supply - side policies and inventory replenishment rhythm. The medium - to - long - term price range of (570 - 770) is still a significant reference [3]. - High - Sulfur and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Oscillating downward [3]. - Asphalt: Futures prices are oscillating downward [3]. - LPG: Attention is on whether the optimistic expectations for Saudi Arabia on December 8 can be fulfilled. The basis is low, and the upside space is limited, showing an oscillating trend [3]. Chemicals - Benzene Ethylene: Accumulating inventory pressure in December leads to a short - term oscillating trend [3]. - PX: Affected by sentiment and cost in the short - term, the price range is [6650, 6950], and PXN is expected to oscillate between [250, 290] dollars per ton [3]. - PTA: Affected by cost and market sentiment, the price range is [4650, 4850], and the processing fee for the 01 contract is in the range of [220, 300] yuan per ton [3]. - Ethylene Glycol: Prices are expected to continue oscillating in the low - level range, and the EG01 - 05 spread should be cautiously arbitraged at high levels [3]. - Short - Fiber: The absolute price follows raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee fluctuates between 950 - 1100 yuan per ton. A short - PF and long - TA position can be lightly attempted [3]. - Bottle Chips: The processing fee has strong support at the bottom of the short - term range but also faces significant upward pressure, and the absolute price follows raw material fluctuations [3]. - Methanol: After the overseas information is confirmed, the futures price rebounds but shows signs of weakness. Attention is on whether the coastal inventory can continue to be digested [3]. - PP and PE: The upside space is limited, and attention is on maintenance changes, showing an oscillating trend [3]. - Caustic Soda: A decline in electricity prices in December lowers the cost, and the futures price may decline. If upstream production is cut or the warehouse receipt logic before delivery is fermented, the price may stabilize [3]. - PVC: Short - term 01 contract shows a small - scale rebound due to position games. Without positive factors, the price may return to a weak trend in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - Urea: The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Short - term storage progress may return to normal, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention is on the overall progress of off - season storage [3]. Agriculture - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: With an increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December, speculation on South American soybeans, and China's return to the US soybean market, US soybeans and domestic soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly at high levels. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory decline is slow, and the basis is rising. The bean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention is on the long position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the main contract change [3]. - Edible Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil): With a narrowing expected increase in palm oil production in November, a stable market sentiment, cost support for domestic soybean oil, tight domestic rapeseed supply, and inventory reduction of rapeseed oil, edible oils are expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [3]. - Corn: In the short - term, it is oscillating strongly. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to oscillate at a high level [3]. - Pigs: In the near - term, the pig price continues to be weak due to high - level production capacity and large - scale pig slaughter at the end of the year. In the long - term, production capacity reduction expectations support the far - month contract price. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention is on the reverse - arbitrage strategy opportunity [3]. - Apples: With strong support for the spot price, positive expectations from Tomb - Sweeping Festival stockpiling and possible weather speculation, the futures price is relatively firm. Attention is on low - buying opportunities after price corrections and future weather changes in the producing areas [3]. - Rubber: It is not the time for a trend - forming market, and the current price is closer to the upper - level pressure. For arbitrage, the RU - MR spread has reached a phased high, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - Cotton: In the short - term, it oscillates within a range. In the long - term, with a low valuation, it is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - Paper Pulp: The futures price oscillates widely due to the issue of warehouse receipts [3]. - Sugar: In the medium - to - long - term, due to expected supply surplus in the new sugar - making season, the price has a downward driving force, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3]. Shipping - Container Shipping on the European Route: Shows an oscillating trend. The market's expectation of resuming navigation in the first half of 2026 has increased, but there is still pressure on the far - month contract, and it is difficult to fully resume navigation in the first quarter [3].