天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)：泰国洪水叠加国内停割临近，橡胶看多情绪升温-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of natural rubber is "oscillating", with a trading strategy of "buying on dips for single - side trading" and "waiting and seeing for arbitrage" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Thailand floods and the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season have increased the bullish sentiment for rubber. Currently, raw material prices are strongly supported, mid - stream inventories have slightly increased, downstream demand has remained stable, and the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level. In the short term, the sentiment in the commodity market is weak, and it may maintain a range - bound performance [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main View and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bullish. In the domestic产区, Yunnan's raw material acquisition volume has weakened, and Hainan's raw material output has decreased. In the Thai产区, the northeast is in the peak production period with falling cup - rubber prices, while the south is affected by floods, with firm glue prices. The situation in the Vietnamese产区 is similar to that in the Thai northeast [3] - Demand: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points month - on - month and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year; that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, down 3.36 percentage points month - on - month and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to increase, but sales pressure will limit the increase [3] - Inventory: It is bearish. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, up 18,000 tons (1.7%) month - on - month. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber on the SHFE also increased [3] - Basis/Spread: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread have widened. The former is due to capital speculation on Shanghai rubber, and the latter is affected by the news of expanding the delivery products of NR and other factors [3] - Profit: It is a mixed situation. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, while the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex has deepened losses, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk rubber has changed little [3] - Valuation: It is neutral. The current absolute price is in the upper - middle position, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - Commodity Market: It is neutral. Near the end of the year and during the contract roll - over period, the risk preference of funds has decreased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled, so the commodity market mostly maintains a volatile trend [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Market Review: Rubber showed a strong and volatile trend this week. The domestic产区 is entering the production - reduction and rubber - cutting season, and there is a risk of floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam, increasing the expectation of supply tightening. Supported by high raw material prices, the 1 - 5 month spread of Shanghai rubber has strengthened, showing a contango structure. As of November 28, the RU main contract closed at 15,410 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton (+1.12%) week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.08%) week - on - week [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices fluctuated slightly [9] - Disk Position: The position transfer of the RU main contract has accelerated, with a decrease in RU positions and an increase in NR positions [17][24] - Disk Spread: The RU - NR spread has widened significantly [31] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Weather: There has been excessive precipitation in southern Thailand [40] - Upstream Raw Materials: Raw material prices have been firm [49] - Production in Main - Producing Countries: The cumulative export volume of ANRPC in September was 8.64 million tons (+3.62%). From January to October, China imported 5.2281 million tons of natural rubber (+17.27%) [72][91] - Mid - Stream Inventory: China's natural rubber social inventory has slightly increased. As of November 23, 2025, it was 1.08 million tons, up 18,000 tons (1.7%) month - on - month [98] - Downstream Tire Demand: The operating rate of all - steel tires has rebounded, while that of semi - steel tires has declined. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%. It is expected to increase, but sales pressure will limit the increase [107][115] - Automobiles and Heavy Trucks: In October, the growth rate of automobile sales narrowed, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In October, the production and sales of automobiles were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, and heavy - truck sales were about 93,000 [122][132] - Tire Exports: From January to October, tire exports were 8.03 million tons (+3.8%), with the cumulative growth rate narrowing. In October, the export volume and value of rubber tires decreased year - on - year [133] - Cost and Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber has decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk rubber has been in a loss [141] - Futures - Spot Price Difference: The futures - spot price difference of the mixed rubber has rebounded [152]