现货短期坚挺，盘面高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the corn industry is "oscillatory" [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply is short - term bullish and medium - term bearish. Short - term farmer reluctance to sell may lead to postponed selling pressure, and the 2025/26 season has a good harvest expectation. The demand is bullish due to high livestock and poultry inventories, low feed enterprise inventories, and seasonal building needs of deep - processing enterprises. The inventory situation is bullish as ports and enterprises have low inventories. The basis is neutral, and the profit is bearish with losses in livestock and poultry farming and deterioration in deep - processing profits. The valuation is neutral, and the macro and policy factors are bullish. Overall, the market is expected to be oscillatory, and investors are advised to be cautiously bullish and pay attention to logistics, downstream inventory, and farmers' selling attitudes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Short - term bullish, medium - term bearish. Short - term farmer reluctance to sell may postpone selling pressure, especially in December - January. The 2025/26 season has lower planting costs, slightly reduced sown area, good yields, and a good harvest expectation [4]. - Demand: Bullish. As of October 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 38.0%, a 2.7 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. High short - term livestock and poultry inventories support feed demand, but policies may affect long - term supply. Feed enterprises need to replenish stocks, deep - processing enterprises have seasonal building needs, and trade merchants have strong purchasing intentions [4]. - Inventory: Bullish. North ports have slow inventory accumulation and low inventory levels. South ports' grain inventories are at low levels, and feed and deep - processing enterprises also have low inventories [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis is at a neutral level [4]. - Profit: Bearish. Livestock and poultry farming and deep - processing industries such as starch and alcohol are facing profit losses or deterioration [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. New - season corn is overvalued in terms of planting costs but undervalued in terms of the absolute futures price [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. The railway administration's loading limit notice increases short - term logistics tension expectations [4]. - Investment Viewpoint: Oscillatory. Short - term supply - demand mismatches due to logistics and weather lead to a firm spot price and an expected high - level oscillation of the futures price. Investors are advised to be cautiously bullish and pay attention to logistics, downstream inventory, and farmers' selling attitudes [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillatory, and arbitrage trading is advised to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis trend of the corn main contract, national average prices, port prices, and futures contract positions over the years [6][8][11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Sales Progress: It shows the sales progress in Northeast and North China regions over the years, and there is an increase in the amount of corn on the market [22][24]. - Port and Enterprise Data: North port arrivals, Shandong deep - processing remaining vehicles, price spreads between ports, and North port corn shipments are presented. In October, corn imports increased while sorghum and barley imports decreased. North port inventories are low, and South port grain inventories are decreasing. Feed enterprises' inventory days are shown, along with feed monthly output [26][33][39][46]. - Livestock and Poultry Farming: Pig prices have slightly declined, and weight reduction is not obvious. Data on pig breeding profits, chicken and egg - laying chicken breeding profits, and存栏 are presented [50][54][58]. - Deep - Processing: Deep - processing corn consumption has a seasonal rebound, and inventories are at low levels. Starch processing profits are deteriorating, and inventories are being depleted. Alcohol production has a seasonal increase in operation rate, but profits are falling. Wheat prices are rising, and flour demand is weak [65][73][97][104]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - USDA Report: The November 2025 report shows an increase in the corn stock - to - consumption ratio of major exporting countries. Global corn production and distribution are presented. The US corn export sales performance is good, including exports to China [117][121][123].