铁矿石（I）：库存再次回升，上方价格压力明确

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking short - selling positions when the price rises. Iron ore is facing clear upward price pressure due to rising inventories. The market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the inventory is likely to continue to accumulate in the medium - term [1][2][19] Group 3: Supply - Recently, the shipment to the port has basically met expectations, and the supply side is relatively stable [1] Group 4: Demand - The current steel mill's hot metal production has slightly decreased to 234.68 tons (-1.6), mainly because some steel mills in the southern region have increased losses and weakening demand, leading to mill maintenance. The profit - making ratio of steel mills has continued to decline, dropping 2.6% to 35.06% month - on - month. According to the maintenance plan, the hot metal production is expected to decline slightly [6][7] Group 5: Inventory - The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased by 1.67 tons to a high of 345.06 tons. With the decrease in berthed ships, the port inventory has increased by 166.37 tons, exceeding the level of the same period last year [6][7] Group 6: Market Sentiment - This week, the Wenhua Index has been running strongly, but the Black Chain Index is still running weakly after approaching the lower limit of the range. Among them, iron - related products such as iron ore, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are strong, while products such as coking coal and coke are weak. Iron ore lacks its own driving force to break through the upper limit of the range, so it is still recommended to take short - selling positions when the price rises [6][19] Group 7: Steel Production and Inventory - This week, the output of the five major steel products has slightly rebounded, with the increase mainly coming from coil products. Rebar continues its rhythm of low output, low apparent demand, and slight inventory reduction. The pressure on hot - rolled coils is gradually emerging. Although the total inventory of hot - rolled coils is still decreasing, the rate of decline has weakened, and the overall inventory far exceeds the seasonal level. Specific data: rebar production is 206.08 (-1.88), total rebar inventory is 531.48 (-21.86), rebar apparent demand is 227.94 (-2.85); hot - rolled coil production is 319.01 (3), total hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 (-1.21), hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 320.22 (-4.2); the output of the five major steel products is 855.71 (5.8), the total inventory of the five major steel products is 1400.81 (-32.29), and the apparent demand of the five major steel products is 888 (-6.16) [9][10]