光期能化：甲醇策略月报-20251201

Report Information - Report Title: "Methanol Strategy Monthly Report: Iran's Plants Shut Down Due to Gas Restrictions" [3][4] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In terms of supply, domestic methanol production is expected to decline slightly in December, and imports will fall from a high level. The shutdown of Iranian plants will lead to a significant drop in arrivals from mid - December to January. - In terms of demand, although the Ningbo Fude plant is scheduled for maintenance in December, the restart of Shandong Yangmei's plants and the launch of Shandong Lianhong's new plant at the end of the year are expected to increase the total olefin demand. - Overall, port inventories are likely to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year, driving up methanol prices. However, considering that the price of downstream polyolefins is unlikely to rise significantly, the increase in methanol prices is expected to be limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Supply: Domestic开工小降,产量预期小幅走弱 - Production Profit: Coal - to - methanol production profits continue to weaken. [6] - Domestic开工&产量: In December, domestic plant maintenance mainly involves the southwest production area. Affected by gas restrictions, the start - up of natural gas - to - methanol plants drags down the overall domestic methanol start - up rate, which may drop to around 83%. [3][12] - Import Profit&Foreign Supply: A large - scale shutdown of Iranian plants occurred at the end of November. It is expected that the methanol loading volume in Iran will decrease significantly in December. [15] - Import&Arrival Volume: Due to the shutdown of Iranian plants at the end of November, the methanol loading volume in Iran is expected to drop significantly in December. Conventionally, China's methanol imports will show a seasonal decline in January. [3][22] 3.2 Demand: MTO需求有支撑 - Downstream Gross Margin: As methanol prices weaken, olefin profits have recovered, but there is an expectation of subsequent weakening. [26][32] - Downstream Start - up Rate: The Ningbo Fude plant is scheduled for maintenance in December. However, the restart of Shandong Yangmei's plants and the launch of Shandong Lianhong's new plant at the end of the year are expected to increase the total olefin demand. The start - up rate of traditional downstream acetic acid plants will gradually recover to 80 - 90% after the end of maintenance in December. [3][37] 3.3 Inventory:预计港口库存边际走弱 - Total Inventory: The overall inventory is expected to enter a destocking phase. [46] - Inland Inventory: With the increase in downstream external procurement, inland inventory has decreased month - on - month. [49] - Port Inventory: The shutdown of Iranian plants will lead to a significant drop in arrivals from mid - December to January. With the high load of MTO plants in the East China region, port inventories are likely to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year. [56] 3.4 Spread:基差走强 - Domestic Regional Spread: Multiple domestic regional spreads are presented in the report, including spreads between different regions such as Shandong and Inner Mongolia. [63][66][69] - Domestic Freight: Freight rates between different domestic regions are shown, such as from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi to Shandong. [72][75] - Domestic Logistics Window: Information on the domestic logistics window is provided, including the spread between Shanxi and Shandong. [79] - Internal - External Spread: Spreads between China and other regions such as Southeast Asia, India, Europe, and the United States are presented. [81][82] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts:较上月小幅下降 - The number of warehouse receipts has decreased slightly compared to last month. [5]