光期能化：PVC策略月报-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is currently characterized by low valuation and weak drivers. The supply side is expected to see an increase in production in December due to fewer maintenance plans and new production capacity. The demand side is weak, mainly due to the continued downturn in the real estate industry and the approaching off - season. However, the cancellation of anti - dumping policies and BIS certification in India will increase exports and relieve some domestic supply pressure. The PVC price may oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply: Maintenance Plans Decrease, Expected Output to Continue Increasing - In November, there were still some PVC enterprises under maintenance, but the number decreased compared to October, and the overall operating rate increased. In December, there are still plans for new production by individual enterprises, which will further expand the production capacity base. With fewer PVC production enterprises having maintenance plans in China, the operating rate has increased, and the overall supply pressure will continue to increase [2][5][20]. - The operating rate of PVC production has increased slightly month - on - month and remains at a relatively high level overall, including both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production methods [8]. 2. Demand: Real Estate Construction to Gradually Decline, Expected Decline in the Operating Rate of Pipes and Profiles - Domestic real estate construction is still weak. As the weather gets colder, data on cement shipments and apparent demand for rebar indicate a weakening of real estate construction. Affected by the off - season of downstream demand and the continued downturn in the real estate industry, the operating rate of product enterprises is low, and overall demand is poor. Product enterprises mainly purchase goods based on rigid demand at low prices and have a strong wait - and - see attitude. - In terms of exports, the cancellation of anti - dumping policies and BIS certification in India will increase China's export volume and relieve some domestic supply pressure [2]. - There is an expectation of a rebound in real - estate transactions at the end of the year [35]. 3. Inventory: Supply - demand Pressure Remains, Total Inventory Oscillates at a High Level - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. With the expectation of a further decline in downstream demand and a continued deterioration in terminal enterprise orders, the PVC inventory digestion ability will continue to weaken [45]. 4. Spread: Expected Narrow - range Oscillation of the Basis - The basis is expected to oscillate in a narrow range. The futures price has continued to decline, and the basis has been repaired compared to before, with the hedging space narrowing [2]. 5. Profit: Weak Profit Performance of Calcium Carbide - based and Ethylene - based Production - The profit performance of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production is weak [4].