蛋白数据日报-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - China's purchasing demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes in South America. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for the unilateral and spot basis. Without obvious weather problems, the new crop's discount is expected to face pressure under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil from December to January, dragging down the domestic soybean meal pricing. The spread between M103 and M105 is expected to be in a positive spread situation, with the risk point being the release of domestic reserves [8] - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month [8] - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, the reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still large. It is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased to a low level [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions on November 28: Dalian was 96 with a change of 21; Tianjin was 56 with a change of 21; Rizhao was - 24 with a change of - 9; Zhangjiagang was - 14 with a change of 11; Dongguan was - 44 with a change of 11; Zhanjiang was - 24 with a change of 31; Fangcheng was - 44 with a change of 11. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 84 with a change of 121 [4] Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 37 with a change of - 18. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: the spot spread in Guangdong was 300, and the spread on the main contract was 592 with a change of 6. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market was 435 with a change of - 127 [5] Supply Situation - USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September [7] - According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of November 22, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 78% (last week was 60%, and the same period last year was 83.3%, with a five - year average of 75.8%). According to BACE, as of November 26, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 36% (last week was 24.6%, and the same period last year was 45%) [7] Demand Situation - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the recent downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal with good提货 performance [8] Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, the reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still large. It is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased to a low level [8] Others - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0420. The Brazilian import soybean's on - disk crushing profit was 240 yuan/ton with a change of - 181.00, and the on - disk gross profit of imported soybeans in 2025 was 195 yuan/ton [5]