航运衍生品数据日报-20251201

Report Overview - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [5] - Researcher: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The EC market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is the news that Maersk's vessels are expected to start partial resumption of passage through the Suez Canal in early December 2025 as a prelude to full resumption of navigation, and CMA CGM plans to achieve full navigation in December 2026. The future market trend will present a weak and volatile pattern, with core driving factors including the implementation of December freight rates, the strength of the January price increase, and seasonal changes in cargo volume [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - SCFI: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1403, with a previous value of 1394 and a rise - fall rate of 0.69%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1122, a previous value of 1123, and a rise - fall rate of - 0.09%. Different routes show varying trends, such as SCFI - US West with a - 0.79% change, SCFI - US East with a 1.85% change, etc. [5] - SCFIS: SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1357, a previous value of 1504, and a rise - fall rate of - 9.77%. SCFIS - Mediterranean has a current value of 2232, a previous value of 2055, and a rise - fall rate of 8.61% [5] Shipping Futures Contracts - Contract Prices: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., prices show different changes. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1190.1, a previous value of 1252.0, and a rise - fall rate of - 4.94% [5] - Contract Positions: Positions of different contracts also change. For example, the current position of EC2606 is 2186, with a previous position of 1986 and a change of 200 [5] - Monthly Spreads: The current value of the 12 - 02 monthly spread is 225.2, with a previous value of 235.0 and a change of - 9.8 [5] Market News - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd have no specific time to adjust the "Gemini" east - west routes. CMA CGM refuses to comment on full return to the Red Sea routes, and its self - operated fleet has not fully resumed. The Suez Canal Authority expects full recovery of vessel traffic volume and revenue normalization by the end of 2026. There is a new battlefield in Sino - US competition affecting third - country trade agreements [6] EC Market Analysis - Spot Prices: In early December, MSK quotes 2500, HPL quotes 2350, etc. [7] - Market Logic: The future market will be weak and volatile. If leading shipping companies maintain quotes between 2400 - 2600 US dollars/FEU in December and there is no large - scale overbooking, EC near - month contracts will continue to be under pressure. The difficulty of the January price increase will increase if cargo volume remains weak or shipping company quotes diverge more, limiting the upside space of the 02 contract. Seasonal cargo volume changes from late December to early January need to be observed [7] - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see as the 12 - contract is gradually losing trading value [8]