CSPT商议联合减产，铜价继续创历史新高

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is expected to move higher as the US dollar index may remain weak and the supply - side of copper is expected to contract significantly. Investors are advised to continue to focus on long positions in copper [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The copper price has rebounded sharply, with the LME copper price breaking through $11,000 per ton and the SHFE copper price approaching 50,000 yuan per ton, hitting a new historical high. The trigger may be the expected continuous contraction of the supply - side due to the low copper concentrate processing fees and the CSPT's agreement to reduce the mining copper production load by over 10% in 2026 [3]. Fundamental Situation - Macro: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in February is increasing, and the recovery of liquidity is favorable for the copper price. Concerns about the Fed's independence may keep the US dollar index weak, which will support the copper price [4][5]. - Supply: The supply of copper ore is increasingly tight, and the processing fees are at a low level with a risk of further decline. The CSPT's joint production cut is triggered by the low processing fees. After the 770 - notice, the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have increased, leading to production cuts in some smelters. The electrolytic copper production has declined since September, and the supply - side has started to contract [4]. - Demand: In the off - season of consumption, the demand for copper wire is weak, but the spot is still at a premium, indicating that the downstream's acceptance of the rising copper price is gradually increasing. The high premium of Chilean copper to Chinese customers reflects the market's expectation of a tight supply - demand situation for refined copper next year [4]. Summary and Strategy - With the deepening of the tight copper ore supply logic and the CSPT's joint production cut, the expectation of copper supply contraction is strong. The copper price is expected to move higher, and investors are advised to continue to focus on long positions in copper [5].