丙烯：高库存压制，供应压力仍然较大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward driving force of propylene is weak, but the downward range is also limited. In the absence of strong cost - driven or significant improvement in the demand side, intensified industry competition may put greater operating pressure on some high - cost process plants. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policy changes, the actual impact of winter energy demand on propane and coal prices, and unexpected changes in downstream demand [5][80]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Propylene Fundamental Situation 1.1 November Propylene Price Continued to Decline, Supply Maintained a Loose Pattern - In November, the price of the main propylene futures contract 2603 fell below 6,000 yuan, reaching a monthly low of 5,758 yuan/ton on November 24. Affected by weak cost, supply pressure, and sluggish demand, the propylene price was under continuous pressure, and the price center shifted downward [4][10]. - In October, propylene supply reached a new high. Domestic production was 5.602 million tons, an increase of 286,000 tons from September and 601,400 tons year - on - year. In November, multiple propylene plants restarted, while some plants began maintenance in mid - to - late November, expected to last until December or Q1 2026. The average monthly load increased by 0.22% to 78.67% compared to October, and the supply pressure remained, with the fundamentals expected to maintain a loose pattern [11]. - At the cost end, OPEC's production increase and suspension policies, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace framework, and sufficient propane supply led to an expected decline in oil prices and a drop in propane import prices. Coal prices were expected to remain stable due to winter demand [14][15][16]. 1.2 Supply Increase, Propylene Spot Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Inventory Remained High - After the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong in September and Guangxi Petrochemical in October, the domestic propylene production capacity reached 77.96 million tons. Multiple plants were scheduled for maintenance or restart, and the overall domestic propylene load was expected to remain high above 78%. As of November 28, the domestic propylene inventory in factories was 48,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [37]. 1.3 In October, Propylene Imports Declined under High Load - With the overall increase in domestic propylene load and increased supply pressure, propylene imports decreased. In October, imports were 133,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 75,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,200 tons. Exports were 1,900 tons. Weak downstream demand also contributed to the decline in imports [39]. 1.4 Poor Downstream Demand, Poor Overall Industry Profit Performance - In November, the prices of propylene downstream derivatives generally declined, with significant drops in polypropylene and acrylic acid prices. Downstream factories were more cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the industry's profitability remained poor. The demand for polypropylene was expected to weaken in December, while the price of propylene oxide rebounded [47]. Third Part: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations 3.1 Market Outlook - OPEC+ decided to maintain the existing oil production quota and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine increased supply concerns, and the rebound space for oil prices was limited. The cooling in some regions was expected to support propane prices, but the demand side recovery outlook remained pessimistic, with the low - level operation of polypropylene and poor profitability of most downstream derivatives difficult to improve in the short term [5][79]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Due to high inventory and high domestic propylene load, the upside space of propylene prices is limited. Short on rallies [7][81]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7][81]. - Options: Sell call options [7][81].