CBOT大豆价格上涨，关注南美天气和美豆出口

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of CBOT soybeans rose this week, influenced by USDA's report of soybean sales to China and the increase in US soybean oil prices. However, the continuous expansion of the year - on - year decline in cumulative US soybean export sales still dragged down the price trend. Meanwhile, the increase in RINs price and US soybean oil price is expected to benefit US soybean crushing. Attention should be paid to the changes in US soybean export demand, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas [6]. - The price of CBOT soybean meal declined slightly this week. The postponement of the EU's "Zero - Deforestation Act" and higher - than - expected US soybean meal export sales limited the decline. The high - level US soybean crushing maintained sufficient supply of soybean meal, which may still suppress the price [11]. - The price of DCE soybean meal rose, supported by the increase in Brazilian soybean import costs due to the rise in Brazilian soybean premium quotes. However, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal in oil mills restricted the price increase. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas, domestic soybean procurement, and inventory changes [14]. - The price of CBOT soybean oil increased, driven by the rise in international competing vegetable oil prices and the increase in the use of US soybean oil in biodiesel production in September. Continuous attention should be paid to the changes in US biodiesel policy [18]. - The price of DCE soybean oil rose, affected by the increase in soybean import costs and domestic competing vegetable oil prices. However, the high - level inventory of soybean oil in oil mills suppressed the price to some extent. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported soybeans, soybean crushing, and inventory changes [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - As of November 28, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1137.25 cents per bushel, up 0.95% from the previous week. The price fluctuated upward, affected by soybean sales to China and the increase in US soybean oil prices, but the decline in export sales dragged down the price [6]. 2. Soybean Meal - External Market: As of November 28, the CBOT soybean meal 01 contract closed at $318.6 per short ton, down 0.38% from the previous week. The price declined slightly, and the postponement of the EU's act and high - export sales limited the decline [11]. - Domestic Market: As of November 28, the DCE soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3044 yuan per ton, up 1.06% from the previous week. The price rose due to the increase in import costs, but inventory accumulation restricted the increase [14]. 3. Soybean Oil - External Market: As of November 28, the CBOT soybean oil 01 contract closed at 52.08 cents per pound, up 2.90% from the previous week. The price increase was driven by international competing vegetable oil prices and biodiesel usage [18]. - Domestic Market: As of November 28, the DCE soybean oil 01 contract closed at 8244 yuan per ton, up 0.66% from the previous week. The price fluctuated upward, affected by import costs and competing vegetable oil prices, but high inventory suppressed the price [22]. II.产区 Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean - Producing Areas Weather - In the past week (November 21 - 28), rainfall and temperature in southern Brazil were lower than normal. In the next week (November 30 - December 7), rainfall in the central - western region is expected to increase, while rainfall in the south will still be lower than normal, and the temperature will be at a normal level [24][26]. 2. Argentine Soybean - Producing Areas Weather - In the past week (November 21 - 28), there was almost no rain in Argentine soybean - producing areas, and the temperature was normal. In the next week (November 30 - December 7), rainfall is expected to be scarce, with only slightly higher rainfall in some northern areas, and the temperature will be higher than normal [30][32]. III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - Export Inspection & Export Sales: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but met expectations, and the year - on - year decline in cumulative volume continued to expand. As of November 20, 2025, the export inspection volume was 799,042 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans in the current crop year was 10,937,372 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.50%. The year - on - year decline in the cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 25/26 season also expanded [37][38][39]. - D4 RINs Price: The RINs price rose this week. As of November 26, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 106 cents, up 5.5 cents from November 21 [44]. 2. Brazilian Soybeans - Soybean Yield Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 Brazilian soybean yield, ranging from 1.67683455 billion tons to 1.7876 billion tons [47]. - Soybean Sowing: As of November 22, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 78.0% (CONAB data), and as of November 20, it was 81% (AgRural data). The sowing progress in different states also varied [47]. - Export Sales: Anec lowered the forecast of Brazilian soybean exports in November to 4.4 million tons. As of the third week of November 2025, the cumulative export of Brazilian soybeans was 104.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.11% [52]. - Soybean Premium: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium quote increased [55]. - Soybean Crushing Profit: The Brazilian soybean crushing profit rose this week. As of November 28, it was $52.07 per ton [57]. 3. Argentine Soybeans - Soybean Sowing: As of the week of November 27, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress reached 39% (SAGyP data), and as of November 26, it was 36.0% (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange data) [59][60]. - Farmer Sales: The weekly sales of Argentine farmers' 24/25 season soybeans increased month - on - month. As of the week of November 19, 2025, they had sold a certain amount of soybeans in different seasons [62][63]. - Soybean Crushing Profit: The Argentine soybean crushing profit slightly recovered this week. As of November 28, it was - $2.99 per ton [69]. IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - China's Imported Soybean Procurement Progress: McDonald Pelz released the weekly procurement progress of China's imported soybeans on November 25, 2025 [72]. - Port and Oil Mill Soybean Inventory: As of November 21, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.425 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 501,000 tons. The oil mill soybean inventory in the 47th week was 7.1499 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 327,200 tons [74]. - Imported Soybean Arrival and Crushing: The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased, while the crushing volume and startup rate of oil mills decreased. In the 47th week, the arrival volume of imported soybeans was about 2.0475 million tons, and in the 48th week, the actual crushing volume was 2.2038 million tons [77]. - Soybean Oil Transaction: The weekly transaction volume of soybean oil decreased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the total transaction volume was 75,400 tons [80]. - Soybean Oil Production and Apparent Consumption: The production of soybean oil in oil mills decreased, while the apparent consumption increased. In the 48th week, the soybean oil production was 407,700 tons, and in the 47th week, the apparent consumption was 400,500 tons [82]. - Soybean Oil Inventory: The commercial inventory of soybean oil in oil mills increased. As of November 21, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1799 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons [85]. 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - Soybean Meal Production and Apparent Consumption: The production of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, while the apparent consumption increased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the soybean meal production was 1.741 million tons, and as of November 21, the apparent consumption was 1.6856 million tons [88]. - Oil Mill Soybean Meal Inventory and Feed Mill Physical Inventory Days: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills increased. As of November 21, 2025, it was 1.1515 million tons. The physical inventory days of feed mills increased. As of November 28, it was 8.17 days [90]. - Soybean Meal Transaction and Pick - up: The weekly transaction volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the transaction volume was 644,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was 940,212 tons [93]. - Downstream Demand: The losses of downstream hog - raising and piglet - purchasing for fattening continued to deepen. The hog ex - factory price and hog - grain ratio decreased [95]. - Soybean Meal Warehouse Receipt Quantity: As of November 28, the registered quantity of DCE soybean meal warehouse receipts was 0 hands [97]. V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Variety Spread Situations - Soybean Oil Basis and Calendar Spread: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of soybean oil in different regions and time periods [100][101][103]. - Soybean Meal Basis and Calendar Spread: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of soybean meal in different regions and time periods [106][107]. - Variety Spread: The report shows the spread data between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the ratio data between soybean oil/soybean meal and corn/soybean meal [109][110][111]. 2. FOB Quotes - The report shows the FOB quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal [113][114][116]. 3. CFTC Positioning - The report shows the net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal managed funds [119][120][121].