NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-12-01 07:43Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The report highlights the continued trading around December interest rate cuts and the geopolitical issues surrounding Russia and Ukraine. The probability of a December rate cut is currently at 85%, with several Federal Reserve officials supporting the continuation of rate cuts. This has led to a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in gold prices. However, the upcoming FOMC meeting will also focus on the dot plot and comments from Powell, which may impact short-term gold prices [2][11]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations remains significant, with recent proposals from the U.S. and Europe facing resistance from Ukraine and Russia. The report suggests that substantive territorial issues are challenging to resolve, indicating a complex negotiation landscape ahead [2][11]. - The potential appointment of Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chair could further strengthen gold prices, as his dovish stance may enhance market expectations for future rate cuts and raise concerns about the Fed's independence [2][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Research Views - The report discusses the ongoing focus on December interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the high probability of a rate cut and its implications for gold prices. It also notes the complexities in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the potential impact of a new Fed Chair on market expectations [2][11]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.42%, outperforming the market by 2.02%. The top-performing sub-sectors included tungsten, lead-zinc, and nickel-cobalt-tin [13][14]. Metal Prices and Inventories - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with LME copper reaching $11,189 per ton, marking a 3.8% increase. Other metals also saw price increases, with significant movements in lithium and cobalt prices. The report highlights the ongoing bullish sentiment in the copper market, driven by expectations of rate cuts and supply constraints [12][32][46].