Orient Securities·2025-12-01 07:43Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The extension of Vanke's bonds has impacted market sentiment. In the short term, the bond prices of private real - estate developers and state - owned real - estate developers with weak credit may fluctuate, but it is difficult for the risk to spread to the urban investment bond sector. Although Vanke's case has not fundamentally shaken the "state - owned enterprise faith" and "urban investment faith" in the bond market, it still has a certain reference value for the evolution of credit crises [5][8]. - The credit risk diffusion is controllable. After 2027, the recognition of urban investment bonds is likely to diverge, but considering the rhythm of risk exposure and fermentation, the bottom - line risk of urban investment bonds within 3 years remains controllable [5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint - Vanke's bond extension is an important factor in last week's credit bond market adjustment. Although the market sentiment release was not as intense as the unexpected default of Yongmei, the impact on market sentiment cannot be ignored. The bond - holding structure and the relatively strong anti - volatility ability of banks and wealth management products have kept the market volatility within a controllable range [5][8]. - The bond prices of private real - estate developers and state - owned real - estate developers with weak credit may be more volatile, but it is unlikely to spread to urban investment bonds in the short term [5][8]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no cases of corporate main - body rating or outlook downgrades during the period from November 24 to November 30, 2025. - The bond ratings of "18泰华诚债", "PR泰华诚", "24鲁王晁", and "22滦州债" were downgraded [12]. - S&P downgraded the long - term issuer credit ratings of Vanke and its subsidiary Vanke Real Estate (Hong Kong) from "CCC" to "CCC -" [13]. - Multiple companies, including Guangxi Communications Investment Group Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Tianjian Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., had negative events such as regulatory measures and debt defaults [14]. 3.2.2 Primary Market Issuance - From November 24 to November 30, the primary market issuance of credit bonds was 344.3 billion yuan, a 15% decrease from the previous period. The total repayment amount dropped to 223.6 billion yuan, and the net financing amount remained above 100 billion yuan at 120.7 billion yuan [15]. - The number of cancelled or postponed bond issuances increased, with 6 bonds and a total scale of 4.27 billion yuan. The issuance cost of AAA - rated bonds decreased significantly [16]. 3.2.3 Secondary Market Transactions - The valuations of credit bonds of all grades and maturities increased across the board last week, and credit spreads widened simultaneously, with a larger widening amplitude at the long - end. The yields of bonds with a maturity of over 3 years for all grades increased significantly, and the 3 - year AA+ grade yield increased by up to 7bp [19]. - The term spreads of 3Y - 1Y and 5Y - 1Y for medium - and high - grade bonds widened significantly, while those of low - grade bonds widened less. The AA - AAA grade spread fluctuated within ±1bp [21]. - The provincial credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened overall, with relatively small differences among provinces. The spreads in Ningxia and Gansu widened by up to 4bp. The spreads of most industries in industrial bonds widened by about 3bp, with the real - estate industry having the largest widening of 53bp [25][27]. - The weekly turnover rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points to 1.71% compared to the previous period. The issuers of the top - ten bonds in terms of turnover rate were mostly central and state - owned enterprises. The credit bonds with a discount of more than 10% in transactions were all Vanke bonds. Among individual entities, the urban investment entities with significant spread changes were scattered, and the top five industrial entities with widening spreads were mostly real - estate developers, including Vanke, Times Holdings, Country Garden, and Rongqiao [28][30][31].