碳酸锂月度策略报告-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - From the weekly data, the decrease in supply and increase in demand led to a decline in the total inventory turnover days to 26.3 days. However, from the perspective of future market trends, considering the expected复产 and preliminary downstream production schedules, the fundamentals may show a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, resulting in a slowdown in the de - stocking speed or inventory accumulation, and the marginal strength of bullish factors is weakening. Therefore, there is a significant risk in continuing to chase the current price increase. The significant deviation of the position - to - inventory ratio on Friday was mainly due to the centralized cancellation, which was caused by a large reduction in the warehouse receipt inventory on November 28th, and the return situation needs to be monitored. From a capital perspective, the current weighted contract position basically remains above 1 million lots. If the price stops rising, a decline in the position may have a significant impact on the futures price [6]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price - The monthly price of lithium carbonate futures increased by 19%, and all links in the industrial chain strengthened. The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 80,780 yuan/ton on October 31, 2025, to 96,420 yuan/ton on November 28, 2025, an increase of 15,640 yuan/ton. Prices of various products in the lithium - battery industrial chain also showed different degrees of increase [8][9]. 3.2 Inventory - Weekly inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to 115,968 tons. Downstream inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to 41,984 tons, inventory in other links increased by 1,780 tons to 49,660 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 1,780 tons to 24,324 tons [6][8][22]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, etc. [31][32]. 3.4 Lithium Resources and Related Products 3.4.1 Lithium Resources - In October, lithium ore imports increased by 2% month - on - month to 530,000 tons [34]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Weekly production decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 20 tons to 13,364 tons, lithium mica production increased by 50 tons to 3,021 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 400 tons to 3,225 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 65 tons to 2,245 tons. In October, lithium carbonate imports increased by 22% month - on - month to 24,000 tons [5][8][47]. 3.4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of lithium hydroxide production by process, capacity, etc. [60][61]. 3.4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of monthly operating rate, production, export, etc. [63][64]. 3.4.5 Waste Recycling - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of waste lithium - battery recycling volume, etc. [66][67]. 3.5 Precursor and Cathode Materials 3.5.1 Ternary Precursor - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of production capacity, production, export, etc. [72][73]. 3.5.2 Ternary Materials - Weekly production increased by 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and inventory increased by 71 tons to 19,361 tons [75]. 3.5.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Production increased by 4,690 tons to 95,713 tons, and inventory increased by 1,757 tons to 104,341 tons [77]. 3.5.4 Other Materials - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of production capacity, production, operating rate of lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate, etc. [78][79]. 3.6 Batteries 3.6.1 Power Cells - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of production and production month - on - month change [81][82]. 3.6.2 Lithium - Battery Production - In October 2025, the production of ternary batteries was 34 GWh, lithium iron phosphate batteries was 147.92 GWh, and other types of batteries was 10.99 GWh, with a total of 192.91 GWh. The month - on - month increase was 2%, 10%, 2%, and 8% respectively; the year - on - year increase was 0%, 51%, 133%, and 41% respectively [85]. 3.6.3 Lithium - Battery Installation - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of installation structure, installation volume of different types of lithium batteries [86][87]. 3.6.4 Lithium - Battery Inventory - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of inventory structure, inventory volume of different types of lithium batteries [88][89]. 3.7 End - Users 3.7.1 New - Energy Vehicles - According to the Passenger Car Association, the preliminary estimate of the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in November was about 2.25 million units, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. Among them, new - energy vehicle retail sales could reach about 1.35 million units, and the penetration rate was expected to increase to 60% [5][90]. 3.7.2 Energy Storage - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of production capacity, operating rate, bidding, installation, and winning bid situations of energy - storage batteries [91][92]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate and lithium ore [93][94]. 3.9 Options - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of historical volatility, historical volatility cone, put - call ratio of position and trading volume [95][97][98].