棉花策略月报-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market: Macro factors have some support, but it is far from enough to drive continuous upward movement. The fundamentals show both bullish and bearish signals, with minor contradictions. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [11] - Domestic market: There is still supply pressure, but the future outlook is not pessimistic. The cotton price center is expected to move up slowly. It is advisable to consider buying out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract and selling out - of - the - money put options on the 05 contract with a lower degree of out - of - the - money. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase year - on - year. The current peak supply pressure in the Northern Hemisphere will continue for some time. The USDA November report predicts that the global cotton production in 2025/26 will be 26.145 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 523,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. [6] - In China, cotton picking and sales are basically completed. As of November 20, the new cotton processing volume was 4.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons, and the processing rate was 64.2%, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. As of November 27, the national cotton inspection volume was 4.0489 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 539,400 tons. [6] 3.2 Demand - In Xinjiang, textile enterprises have good profits and stable operation. In October, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate exceeded that of social retail sales. [7] - As of the week of November 28, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the load of pure cotton yarn mills was 48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 51.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the load of all - cotton grey cloth was 49.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. [7] 3.3 Import and Export - US cotton export data is only available until early October, showing a year - on - year decline. China's clothing exports have seen an increased year - on - year decline due to multiple factors, but there should be some improvement after the Sino - US tariff adjustment. [8] - In October, the export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics and related products was $11.258 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%; the cumulative export from January to October was $117.735 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories in October was $11.003 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 15.96%; the cumulative export from January to October was $126.201 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. [8] - In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons; the import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons. [8] 3.4 Inventory - China's cotton industrial and commercial inventories are increasing, but the commercial inventory has decreased year - on - year. In November, old warehouse receipts expired, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The terminal textile and clothing inventory is expected to gradually decline. [9] - As of mid - November, China's cotton commercial inventory was 3.6397 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 709,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 209,300 tons; the industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 59,400 tons. [9] - As of the week of November 28, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.94 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days. [9] 3.5 Price - The center of the cotton spot price has moved up slightly. The prices in various regions such as China, Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang have all increased to varying degrees. [20][22] - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton has gradually strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread on November 28 was 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton. [27][29] - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under the 1% tariff has strengthened. The price difference on November 28 was 1,961 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 184 yuan/ton. [30][31] - The price of cotton yarn futures has strengthened. The closing price of cotton yarn on November 28 was 20,090 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 295 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.49%. [33][35] - The basis of cotton yarn has gradually converged. The basis of cotton yarn on November 28 was 650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton. [37][38]