光大期货钢材策略月报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of supply and demand in the steel industry have limited driving force, and macro - level disturbances may intensify. The demand side is under pressure due to the decline in investment growth, while the supply side is expected to see a further decline in production. The market will be in a situation of weak supply and demand in December, with prices likely to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to macro - level events [4][193][196] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - In November, the prices of black - series commodities showed divergent trends. Coal and coke prices dropped significantly, while iron ore and steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with rebar performing stronger than hot - rolled coil. International hot - rolled coil prices showed mixed trends [6][7] - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts changed in November. The difference between rebar and billet prices widened, the difference between first - and third - tier rebar resources in East China narrowed, and the difference between rebar and scrap steel prices widened [9][27] - In November, the 1 - 5 spread of rebar futures widened, and the 5 - 10 spread narrowed. The ratio of rebar to iron ore narrowed, and the ratio of rebar to coke widened [37][43] 3.2 Supply - In October, the production of crude steel and pig iron continued to decline. In November, the weekly production of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and five major steel products all decreased. The production of rebar decreased in the northern, eastern, and southern regions [47][55][62] - In November, the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and daily molten iron output declined, while the electric furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and steel mill scrap steel inventory increased [71][77] 3.3 Demand - In October, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment, sales, new construction, and completion widened, while the year - on - year decline in construction narrowed. Infrastructure investment growth continued to be negative, and the growth rates of transportation, water conservancy, and power investment all declined [82][89] - In October, the growth rate of automobile production and sales rebounded, the growth rate of excavator sales declined, and the growth rate of heavy - truck sales increased. The production and export of household appliances showed mixed trends [95][102] - In November, the national building materials trading volume declined, the rebar delivery volume in Hangzhou increased, and the cement delivery volume increased. The trading volume in the eastern and northern regions declined, while that in the southern region increased. The operating rate of cement mills first decreased and then increased [105][113] - In November, the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil declined, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased. The land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased, while the passenger car sales volume declined [121][128] 3.4 Inventory - In November, the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 112.95 million tons, with rebar inventory decreasing by 71.04 million tons and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 5.69 million tons. The inventory in Shanghai and Hangzhou for rebar increased, while that in Guangzhou and Beijing decreased. The inventory of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Chengdu increased, while that in Tianjin and Lecong decreased [133][144][156] 3.5 Profit - In November, the losses on the rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contract plates narrowed. The losses of long - process steel mills widened, while the losses of short - process steel mills narrowed. In Jiangsu, the losses per ton of steel for blast furnace steel mills widened, and the losses of electric furnace steel mills during peak - power hours narrowed [160][162] 3.6 Import and Export - From January to October, steel exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, while in June, steel exports decreased by 12.5% year - on - year [165] 3.7 Liquidity - In October, the growth rate of the stock of social financing, M1, and M2 all declined. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of medium - and long - term loans for enterprises and households decreased significantly [169][178] 3.8 Transaction Data - In November, the positions, settled funds, and trading volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coil all declined [181] 3.9 Steel Options - Information on the historical volatility, position - to - volume ratio of put - to - call options, and trading - volume ratio of put - to - call options of rebar options is provided [184][188]