铁合金策略月报-20251201

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For manganese - silicon, in a loss situation, production is gradually decreasing, but producer inventories remain high, with limited fundamental support. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and market sentiment and new round of steel tender pricing should be monitored [6][7]. - For silicon - iron, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Although cost support is strong, the upward driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, start - up conditions, and electricity price settlement [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price - The prices of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have decreased in resonance, and are at the lowest levels in recent years. From November 5th to November 28th, 2025, the manganese - silicon futures price dropped from 5,776 yuan/ton to 5,612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84%; the silicon - iron futures price dropped from 5,560 yuan/ton to 5,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06% [11][13]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot prices of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have declined. For example, in manganese - silicon, the prices in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and other regions decreased by 160 - 70 yuan/ton from October 31st to November 28th, 2025; in silicon - iron, the prices in Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other regions decreased by 100 - 70 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron has weakened. For example, on November 28th, 2025, compared with November 21st, the SM01 basis of manganese - silicon decreased by 26 yuan/ton, and the SF01 basis of silicon - iron decreased by 14 yuan/ton [18][20]. 3.4 Near - far Spread - The 1 - 5 spreads of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have strengthened slightly. On November 28th, 2025, compared with November 21st, the 1 - 5 spread of manganese - silicon increased by 14 yuan/ton, and that of silicon - iron increased by 4 yuan/ton [23][26]. 3.5 Double - silicon Spread - The spread between silicon - iron and manganese - silicon (silicon - iron - silicon - manganese) decreased by 10 yuan/ton from November 6th to November 28th, 2025 [27]. 3.6 Production Cost - The production cost of silicon - iron has changed significantly, and the production costs in most regions (except Inner Mongolia) have strengthened. For example, from October 30th to November 27th, 2025, the production cost of silicon - iron in Gansu increased by 146 yuan/ton, and that in Qinghai increased by 386 yuan/ton [29][30]. 3.7 Production Profit - The immediate production profit of manganese - silicon has weakened, the production profit of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia has strengthened month - on - month, but the loss in most production areas has intensified. For example, from October 30th to November 27th, 2025, the production profit of manganese - silicon in the northern region decreased by 175.02 yuan/ton [31][35]. 3.8 Manganese - silicon Supply - The weekly output of manganese - silicon has declined and returned to the median level in recent years. The operating rates of manganese - silicon producers in Ningxia and Yunnan have dropped significantly. For example, from October 31st to November 28th, 2025, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased from 207,725 tons to 194,775 tons [36][39]. 3.9 Manganese - silicon Demand - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon is still at a low level in recent years, and the decline in crude steel production is obvious. For example, in October 2025, the crude steel output was 7199.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% [44][46]. 3.10 Manganese - silicon Cost - The price of manganese ore has increased slightly. From October 30th to November 28th, 2025, the price of Gabon manganese ore increased by 2.2 yuan/dry - ton degree, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [51][52]. 3.11 Manganese Ore - The inventory of port manganese ore has remained stable. The inventory of Australian ore has decreased after reaching a phased high, and the inventory of Gabon manganese ore has decreased fluctuantly [54][57]. 3.12 Manganese - silicon Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased month - on - month, continuously hitting a new high in recent years. The available days of manganese - silicon inventory have increased slightly year - on - year. For example, from November 14th to November 28th, 2025, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 15,500 tons [61][68]. 3.13 Manganese - silicon Option - The historical volatility of manganese - silicon options is at a low level. The put - call ratio of the open interest/volume of manganese - silicon options fluctuates greatly, and the current ratio is at the median [69][72]. 3.14 Silicon - iron Supply - The weekly output of silicon - iron has continued to decline. In October 2025, the national silicon - iron output was 505,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons [75][83]. 3.15 Silicon - iron Demand - The demand for silicon - iron from steel mills is still at a low level. The output of magnesium ingots in October 2025 increased month - on - month, reaching a new high in recent years. The import volume of silicon - iron increased by 4.86% month - on - month in October 2025, and the export volume decreased by 36.14% [86][96]. 3.16 Silicon - iron Cost - The price of small - sized semi - coke has increased month - on - month. From October 30th to November 28th, 2025, the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi increased by 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.33% [97][99]. 3.17 Silicon - iron Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon - iron has decreased slightly month - on - month, but the absolute value is still high. The available days of silicon - iron inventory have increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. For example, from November 14th to November 28th, 2025, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 9,530 tons [101][108]. 3.18 Silicon - iron Option - The put - call ratio of the open interest of silicon - iron options has decreased fluctuantly [111].