估值偏高震荡回落：有色金属周报——碳酸锂-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current valuation of lithium carbonate is high, and the price is expected to oscillate and decline. The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate show a pattern of strong supply and demand, but downstream demand growth has stagnated, and the exchange has taken measures to cool the market. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price still has room for correction. The recommended investment strategy is to sell short on rallies, with an operating range of 80,000 - 104,000 [6][97] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The basis is at a discount of 2,670 yuan/ton [10] 1.2 Supply Side Lithium Ore - In October, China's lithium spodumene production was 7,350 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%; lithium mica production was 7,700 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5% [14] - In October, the import volume of lithium concentrate increased to 531,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [18] - In October, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 73,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 32.4% [22] Lithium Battery Recycling - In November, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 30,164 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [26] Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,865 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% - In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate increased to 23,881 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0% - In October, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 16,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 46.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% [31][33] Lithium Hydroxide - In December, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 43%, with a scheduled production of 28,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 23.1% - In October, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 2,876 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.3% [40] 1.3 Downstream Demand Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 95,713 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2% - In November, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 341,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 46% [43] Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 19,261 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% - In October, the import volume decreased and the export volume increased [49] Ternary Precursors - In December, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 43%, with a scheduled production of 80,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% and a year - on - year increase of 4.3% - In October, the export volume increased slightly [54] Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In December, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 44%, with a scheduled production of 12,470 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 3% - In December, the operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 69%, with a scheduled production of 13,235 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 75% [55] Electrolyte - In November, the scheduled production of electrolyte was 210,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 28.0% - In October, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [62] 1.4 Terminal Demand Power Batteries - In October, the production of power batteries was 170.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.8% - In October, the installed capacity of power batteries was 84.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1% - Last week, the production of ternary power cells was 7.46 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%; the production of lithium iron phosphate power cells was 22.21 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% [65][66] New Energy Vehicles - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 21.1% - In October, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.715 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 19.9% [71] Energy Storage - In December, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries was 57.4 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 50.1% - In October, the power scale of energy - storage bids was 6.07 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 65.8%; the capacity scale of energy - storage bids was 16.35 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 67.5% [77] Consumer Electronics - In October, China's smartphone production was 116.93 million, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and year - on - year flat - In October, China's micro - computer production was 24.22 million, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [80] 1.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices have risen. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate has increased by 61 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica has increased by 50 yuan/ton [85] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 2,452 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory has decreased by 1,780 tons, downstream inventory has decreased by 2,452 tons, and other inventory has increased by 1,780 tons - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate has increased by 1,757 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials has increased by 71 tons [92][93] 1.7 Market Outlook - The recommended investment strategy is to sell short on rallies, with an operating range of 80,000 - 104,000 - In the resource end, the supply of lithium mica mines in Jiangxi is still at a low level, lithium spodumene production has increased, and lithium ore imports have risen - In the supply end, last week's weekly production of lithium carbonate declined, mainly due to the decrease in salt - lake production and the increase in lithium carbonate production from other raw materials; the import volume of lithium salts has increased, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile has increased, and the recycling end has maintained stable growth - In the demand end, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales has slowed down, the weekly production of power cells has rebounded, last week lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials have accumulated inventory; the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries has stagnated, and the scale of energy - storage bids has declined - In the cost end, the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica have increased - In terms of inventory, the overall inventory has decreased, smelters and downstream have reduced inventory, and other inventory has increased [97]