银河期货铜12月报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term, the US loose monetary policy is expected to drive up inflation, and the copper - gold ratio will support prices. The supply side of copper concentrates faces more disturbances, and the smelting industry is expected to reduce internal competition. Consumption is in a stage of transformation between old and new drivers. Although traditional consumption with low added - value is weakening, the growth of energy - storage batteries, new - energy vehicles, and future AI will offset the negative impact of the decline in traditional consumption to some extent, so the long - term upward trend of copper remains unchanged. In the short term, after the previous upward trend, there is a lack of new stimuli, and the downstream needs time to accept the price, so the market will mainly consolidate at a high level [5]. - The supply of copper mines is tightening, and the increase in refined copper production is expected to be 950,000 tons or a year - on - year increase of 3.53%, lower than 4.3% in 2024. The consumption growth rate is expected to decline to 3%, lower than 3.76% last year. The market is expected to fluctuate between 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the long - term upward trend continues, so a low - buying strategy is recommended [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Copper Market Review a. Market Review - In November 2025, copper prices consolidated at a high level, with the lowest reaching 84,900 yuan/ton for SHFE copper on November 5 and the highest reaching 87,920 yuan/ton on November 14. The market focused on the December interest - rate cut expectation and the AI bubble risk. The Fed's hawkish remarks in the middle of the month lowered the interest - rate cut expectation to 40%, weakening market sentiment. Later, the release of NVIDIA's earnings report and the Fed's dovish turn increased the probability of a December interest - rate cut to over 80%, supporting prices [4][9]. - Fundamentally, Freeport expects the Grasberg output to decline to 1 billion pounds in 2026, and the spot processing fee is reported at over - 40 dollars/ton. The Cl spread remained at 3% - 5% this month. The reasons for the decrease in US copper imports may be the decline in Chilean copper production, some goods being held by traders, and the narrowing of cross - market arbitrage space. The supply tension in the LME market has been alleviated, and domestic downstream buyers mostly priced at below 86,000 yuan/ton [10]. b. Market Outlook - In terms of supply, the increase in copper mine supply is adjusted down to - 30,000 tons, and the overall supply tension of copper mines has intensified. Overseas smelters are increasing production cuts, and domestic smelters are also affected by problems such as the decline in anode plate supply, regular maintenance, and insufficient raw material supply. It is expected that the refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons or a year - on - year increase of 3.53%, lower than 4.3% in 2024. The negotiation of TC and long - term premium is difficult, and attention should be paid to the signing of long - term import contracts [11]. - In terms of price, macroscopically, whether there is an interest - rate cut in December or not, the US loose - money policy has not ended, which will have a positive feedback on the market. Fundamentally, the supply tension persists, and the downstream's acceptance of high prices is insufficient, but the overall market remains resilient. It is expected to fluctuate between 85,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and the long - term upward trend continues, so a low - buying strategy is recommended [11]. Second Part: Repeated Expectations of Fed Interest - Rate Cut - In November 2025, the release of US non - farm payroll data in September lowered the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December to below 40%. Later, Williams' remarks increased the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut to 69.4%. The market seems more willing to believe that the Fed will cut interest rates in December. The NAR expects that the sales of existing and new residential properties in the US will increase in 2026 due to lower expected loan interest rates, continuous employment growth, and market stability [21]. - In October 2025, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. The personal income tax increased year - on - year, but the per - capita disposable income growth rate was lower than last year, and the consumption growth momentum was insufficient [22][25]. Third Part: Increased Disturbances in Copper Mines, and the Supply Tension is Difficult to Alleviate a. Sharp Decline in the Increase of Copper Concentrate Supply - In September 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1.914 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1,000 tons. From January to September, the global copper concentrate production was 17.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. Peru's copper production in September was 240,995 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [35]. - Many mining companies have lowered their production plans. It is expected that the global copper concentrate increase in 2025 will drop to - 30,000 tons, far lower than 665,500 tons in 2024. The supply tension of copper mines is difficult to alleviate, and the processing fee is likely to be less than 0 dollars/ton. China's copper concentrate imports in October 2025 increased by 5.94% year - on - year [36][37]. b. Decline in the Start - up of Recycling and Processing Enterprises, and the Tension in Scrap Copper Supply is Alleviated Temporarily - In October 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and scraps reached 197,000 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The imports from the US through Japan and Thailand increased significantly, while the imports from the EU decreased. The policy of standardizing investment promotion may affect the start - up of recycled copper rod enterprises. In October 2025, China's imports of anode copper decreased year - on - year, while the imports of scrap copper ingots increased [47][48][50]. c. Accelerated Transmission of Insufficient Raw Material Supply to the Smelting End - In 2025, the supply of copper mines is tight. It is expected that the global refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons or a year - on - year increase of 3.53%, lower than 4.3% in 2024. Overseas smelters are increasing production cuts, and domestic smelter production has also declined. The supply of imported refined copper may slow down [53][54][56]. Fourth Part: Consumption Analysis a. Obvious Decline in Traditional Consumption Growth - In the real - estate market, from January to October 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing and the completion area decreased year - on - year. The real - estate market is in an adjustment and bottom - building stage, and the decline in real - estate completion will continue to drag down electrolytic copper consumption. It is estimated that the copper consumption in the construction industry will decrease by 123,700 tons to 1.1137 million tons [64][65]. - In the power grid and power - source projects, from January to October 2025, the investment in power grids and power - source projects increased year - on - year, but at a lower rate than last year. High copper prices inhibited the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises, and the wire - and - cable start - up rate decreased. In October 2025, the export of wire and cable decreased month - on - month [71]. - In the household - appliance industry, from January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of air conditioners increased year - on - year, but in October, the sales decreased year - on - year. The air - conditioner production plan for December 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected that the annual consumption growth rate of air conditioners will decline to 2%, and the copper consumption will decrease slightly [76][77]. b. Resilience in Automobile Consumption - In China, from January to October 2025, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year. The new - energy vehicle production and sales accounted for 46.7% of the total. The resumption of the new - energy vehicle purchase tax in 2026 will drive the sales in 2025 [85][86]. - In Europe and the US, from January to October 2025, the sales of new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year. BNEF expects that the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles will reach 21.9 million this year, with China accounting for nearly two - thirds. The global new - energy vehicle copper consumption is expected to increase to 1.4011 million tons [93][95]. c. Unexpected Growth in Wind and Solar Power Generation - In terms of photovoltaic installation, from January to October 2025, China's new photovoltaic installation increased by 39.47% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the new installation forecast for this year. The IEA expects that the global new photovoltaic installation will reach 630GW in 2025 [105][106]. - In terms of wind - power installation, from January to October 2025, China's new wind - power installation increased by 52.86% year - on - year. The CWEA predicts that China's new wind - power installation will reach 105 - 115GW in 2025. The GWEC expects that the global new wind - power installation will increase to 138GW in 2025. The copper consumption of wind and solar power is expected to increase by 208,500 tons in 2025 [119][120]. d. Explosive Growth in Lithium - Ion Copper Foil - In 2024, the global copper - foil production capacity was 2.544 million tons, with the lithium - ion copper - foil production capacity growing by 37.55% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's lithium - ion copper - foil production increased by 38% year - on - year. It is estimated that the production will reach 853,800 tons this year, driving domestic consumption by 1.38%. The GGII expects that China's energy - storage shipments will reach 580GW in 2025, with a copper consumption of about 300,000 tons [126]. e. Consumption Summary - It is expected that the global consumption growth rate will decline to 3% in 2025, lower than 3.76% last year, and China's consumption growth rate will decline from 4.5% to 3.5%. Overseas demand remains stable, while domestic demand weakens marginally in the second half of the year. New - energy vehicles, energy - storage batteries, etc. are the key factors driving consumption, and downstream procurement is concentrated below 86,000 yuan/ton [130]. Fifth Part: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In terms of supply, it is expected that the copper - mine growth in 2025 will be - 30,000 tons, and the refined - copper production will increase by 950,000 tons. In terms of consumption, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline to 3.4% in 2025. The supply gap of copper concentrates is expected to widen to 790,000 tons in 2025, and the refined - copper surplus is expected to be 380,000 tons [135]. - The report also provides the supply - demand balance sheets of China's refined copper and global copper, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of copper in different years [137][138].