ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-12-01 08:20Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, emphasizing a preference for value investments as the price center is expected to rise in 2026 [1]. Group 1: 2025 Review - Coal production in China showed a trend of high output in the first half of 2025, followed by a decline, with a total of 397.3 million tons produced from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2][16]. - Coal imports decreased significantly, with a total of 38.8 million tons imported from January to October, representing an 11% year-on-year decline [2][24]. - The overall coal consumption remained resilient, with a total of approximately 4.24 billion tons consumed from January to October, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3][44]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The coal price experienced a V-shaped recovery, with prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite rebounding to 816, 1670, and 930 CNY per ton respectively by November 28, 2025 [4]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand balance is maintained through policies that regulate production while ensuring supply stability [5]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - The report forecasts coal consumption to reach 4.95 billion tons in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, driven primarily by demand from the power and chemical sectors [5]. - It is anticipated that coal production will slightly increase to 4.87 billion tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on high-dividend coal companies and those showing signs of recovery from financial distress, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal [5].