瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the M300 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12445 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 70 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6126 lots, an increase of 1933 lots; the main contract position is 108469 lots, a decrease of 8957 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 62998 tons, a decrease of 121 tons [2] 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B coil (cut - edge, Wuxi) is 13200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 (Wuxi) is 8850 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The SS main contract basis is 375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29430 tons, an increase of 1120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 22900 metal tons, an increase of 1200 metal tons [2] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9939.65 tons, a decrease of 18631.22 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 905100 tons, a decrease of 180200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 119750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%, national) is 885 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2] - China's ferrochrome output is 757800 tons, a decrease of 26900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The 300 - series stainless - steel output is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 597600 tons, an increase of 12300 tons [2] - The stainless - steel export volume is 458500 tons, a decrease of 29500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 490613900 square meters, an increase of 36623900 square meters [2] - The output of excavators is 30900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21900 units, a decrease of 4300 units; the output of small tractors is 9000 units, a decrease of 1000 units [2] Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded to 49.2 month - on - month. The high - tech manufacturing PMI has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months. Affected by the high base, the non - manufacturing PMI declined slightly [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that interest rates are at a reasonable level [2] - Germany's CPI in November was 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the preliminary value of the harmonized CPI year - on - year unexpectedly rose to 2.6%, a nine - month high [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, the nickel ore grade is decreasing, and the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, Indonesia's nickel - iron output remains at a high level, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and although the traditional demand peak season is over, the actual decline in output is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the stainless - steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of the previous export squeeze is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance are average. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory is showing a narrow increase [2] - Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is under pressure, and the short sentiment is weakening [2]