瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, control the rhythm and trading risks. The supply may gradually converge due to profit issues, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum shows some resilience [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, it is also advised to conduct light - position oscillating trading, control the rhythm and trading risks. The production is slightly weak, and the downstream demand has some resilience [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, light - position oscillating trading is recommended, with attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks. The supply may decrease slightly, and the demand has certain support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum - related Contracts: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,865 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,677 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,865 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars [2]. - Inventory and Positions: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 539,050 tons; Shanghai Aluminum's warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons to 66,833 tons. The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 4,953 hands to 265,623 hands, while the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 320 hands to 359,920 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,730 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Premiums and Basis: The Shanghai Wuma Aluminum premium was - 60 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium was - 25.95 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars. The basis of alumina was 93 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina: The production was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the demand from the electrolytic aluminum part was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The export was 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import was 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 17,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the import quantity of aluminum scrap in China was 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export quantity was 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import quantity was 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export quantity was 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. The total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production was affected by seasonality and decreased slightly [2]. - Aluminum Products: The production of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile: The monthly production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles. It is expected that the annual automobile sales in China will exceed 34 million vehicles, with new - energy vehicle sales reaching 16 million vehicles and exports exceeding 6.8 million vehicles [2]. - Real Estate: The national housing climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 10.96%, down 0.33%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.73%, up 0.33%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 9.23%, up 0.0021; the put - call ratio was 1.64, up 0.0672 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed will cut interest rates at the December 9 - 10 meeting, with a probability of about 85% - 86% for a 25 - basis - point cut [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. - The inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in November was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The estimated terminal sales of passenger cars in November were about 2.15 million vehicles [2]. - The CMF annual report suggests that China's economy will face three new opportunities in 2026, and it is advisable to set cross - cycle interval combination targets [2].