Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of palm oil has risen, and attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the producing areas, high - frequency data from palm oil producing areas, changes in import demand in major consumption areas such as India, and changes in biodiesel policies of relevant countries [8][9] - The increase in domestic palm oil inventory has dragged down the price trend of the DCE palm oil futures, and attention should be paid to domestic palm oil import purchases and changes in downstream demand [12] Summary According to the Directory I. Market Review 1. BMD Malaysian Palm Oil - As of November 28, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13% from the previous week. The price increase was mainly due to concerns about production caused by floods in Southeast Asia, but weak export demand limited the increase [8] - SPPOMA and MPOA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of November was expected to increase month - on - month, but the increase estimated by MPOA was much lower than that estimated by SPPOMA. The increase in production in the first 25 days of November was significantly narrower than that in the first 20 days [8] - Three major institutions' high - frequency data predicted that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in the first 25 days of November decreased by 16.4% - 40.77% month - on - month, and weak export demand dragged down the price [8] 2. DCE Palm Oil - As of November 28, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. The price increase was mainly driven by the rise in the price of BMD Malaysian palm oil, but the increase in domestic palm oil inventory dragged down the futures price [12] - This week, the quotes of foreign merchants increased. Recently, palm oil inventory increased slightly, and downstream transactions were relatively light [12] II. Producing Area Weather 1. Palm Oil Producing Area Weather - Malaysian Producing Area Weather: From November 22 - 28, except for a small part of southern Peninsular Malaysia and central Sarawak where precipitation was 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was at or higher than the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm. From November 29 - December 5, except for a small part of southern Peninsular Malaysia, southeastern Sarawak, and southern Sabah where precipitation was expected to be 15 - 50mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was expected to be generally at or lower than the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm [14][16] - Indonesian Producing Area Weather: From November 22 - 28, except for parts of southeastern Sumatra and southern Kalimantan where precipitation was 15 - 50mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was at or higher than the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm. From November 29 - December 5, except for parts of northern and southern Sumatra and western Kalimantan where precipitation was expected to be 15 - 50mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was expected to be generally at or higher than the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm [19][21] III. International Supply and Demand 1. GAPKI September Report - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of the month was 2.592 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous month. The export volume of palm oil (including refined products) was 2.2 million tons, a 37% month - on - month decrease and a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of September, the cumulative export volume of palm oil (including refined products) in 2025 reached 2.4896 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase [23] - In September 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production was 3.932 million tons, a 22% month - on - month decrease and a 2% year - on - year decrease. As of September, Indonesia's CPO production in 2025 reached 39.581 million tons, an 11% year - on - year increase [23] 2. Malaysian Palm Oil November Forecast - Export Forecast: AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1 - 25 was 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease from the same period last month. ITS data showed that the export volume from November 1 - 25 was 1,041,935 tons, an 18.8% decrease from the same period last month. SGS data predicted that the export volume from November 1 - 25 was 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the same period last month [31] - Production Forecast: SPPOMA data showed that from November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.45% month - on - month, and production increased by 10.32% month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, the yield per unit area increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and production increased by 5.49% month - on - month. MPOA data showed that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.24% from the same period last month [34] 3. Other Important News - Indonesia will set the reference price of crude palm oil in December at $926.14/ton, lower than $963.75/ton in November. The export tariff of crude palm oil in December will drop to $74, lower than $124 in the previous month. Indonesia also imposes an additional 10% special export tax on crude palm oil [38] - Malaysia's palm oil exports to China in the first 10 months of this year decreased by about 29% year - on - year, facing challenges in competitiveness, logistics, pricing dynamics, and market positioning [38] - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra Island caused floods and landslides, resulting in 52 deaths as of November 27. The floods affected 13 regions and cities in West Sumatra Province, and 16 telecommunications base stations were shut down [38] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Import Profit - This week, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit for the January 2026 shipment slightly widened [39] 2. Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions increased. As of the week of November 28, the total weekly transactions (spot transactions + basis transactions) of palm oil were 8,600 tons, an increase of 600 tons or 8% from the previous week [42] 3. Palm Oil Inventory - As of November 21, 2025 (week 47), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 667,100 tons, a 1.39 - million - ton or 2.13% increase from the previous week, and a 159,200 - ton or 31.34% increase from the same period last year [44][45] V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread Situations - Palm Oil Basis and Monthly Spread: Relevant charts showed the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangzhou against the 01 futures contract, as well as the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil [48][52] - Variety Spread and POGO Spread: Relevant charts showed international soybean - palm oil spread, POGO spread, international rapeseed - palm oil spread, international sunflower - palm oil spread, domestic soybean - palm oil futures spread, and domestic rapeseed - palm oil futures spread [54][57][58] 2. Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest - Relevant charts showed the quantity of DCE palm oil warehouse receipts and the open interest of the DCE palm oil 01 contract [60] 3. FOB Quotes - Relevant charts showed the FOB quotes of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [63]
国富棕榈油研究周报：棕榈油价格上涨，关注产地天气情况-20251201
Guo Fu Qi Huo·2025-12-01 08:39