海外风险资产修复，国内11月PMI偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas, the US economy still shows resilience, with the GDPNow model predicting a 3.9% annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q3, driven by personal consumption and net exports. Consumption momentum is slowing, and attention should be paid to the released CPI and non - farm payroll data. Driven by rising interest - rate cut expectations and Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, overseas risk assets generally recovered last week [2]. - Domestically, the November PMI and October industrial enterprise profits further confirm the weakening of the economic fundamentals in Q4. The manufacturing PMI is 49.2, remaining in the contraction range for eight consecutive months. The construction and service industries are also in the contraction range. October industrial enterprise profits declined, with manufacturing and public utilities being the main drags. A - shares had a weak rebound with shrinking volume last week, and short - term shocks are expected to be weak [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Macro - US Retail in September: US retail sales were weaker than expected in September. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month (expected 0.4%, previous 0.6%), and core retail sales increased 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Durable goods consumption was divided, and non - durable goods still showed some resilience but with obvious structural differences [4][5]. 2. Domestic Macro - October Industrial Enterprise Profits: From January to October 2025, industrial enterprise revenues were 113.37 trillion yuan, with a 1.8% year - on - year increase. Total profits were 5950.29 billion yuan, a 1.9% year - on - year increase, significantly lower than September's 3.2%. The single - month profit growth rate in October dropped to - 5.5%. Upstream mining profits decreased less, while mid - and downstream profits cooled significantly. Enterprises were accumulating inventory, and profit margins were the main drag on profits [9][10]. - November Manufacturing PMI: The November manufacturing PMI was 49.2, still in the contraction range. Supply and demand improved synchronously, with external demand improving significantly. Prices rose, and finished - product inventory decreased. The service industry's prosperity declined, and the construction industry was still struggling [12][13]. 3. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equities: A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas equities showed different trends last week. For example, the Wande All - A Index rose 2.90%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.40%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 4.91% [23]. - Bonds: Yields of domestic and overseas bonds changed last week. For example, the 1 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.42 basis points, and the 2 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 4.00 basis points [26]. - Commodities: Commodity prices generally rose last week. For example, the South China Commodity Index rose 1.99%, COMEX gold rose 4.34%, and COMEX silver rose 14.37% [27]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index declined, and exchange rates of major currencies against the RMB changed. For example, the US dollar against the RMB decreased by 0.43% [30]. 4. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: The report provides charts of high - frequency data such as the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, and commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities [32]. - Overseas: The report provides charts of high - frequency data such as Redbook commercial retail sales and unemployment insurance claims in the US [37]. 5. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include China's November RatingDog manufacturing PMI, euro - zone November CPI, and US November ISM manufacturing PMI [46].