利率债周报：上周债市整体走弱，收益率曲线呈现熊陡走势-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market weakened overall, with long - term bond yields rising significantly. Affected by rumors of new regulations on public fund sales and the stock market's shock recovery, market sentiment weakened further, and bond fund redemption pressure increased. However, on Friday, the bond market recovered due to the weakening expectation of November PMI and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. The yield curve steepened upward as short - term bond yields rose less than long - term ones because of the loose funding situation. [2] - This week (the week of December 1st), the bond market will continue to fluctuate. The November manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged, which is generally favorable to the bond market. December is a traditional allocation month, and institutional investors such as insurance companies may make advance arrangements, providing some support to the bond market. However, due to the uncertainty of the new regulations on public fund sales, stock market disturbances, and weak expectations of interest rate cuts, market sentiment is generally cautious, and the bond market's reaction to fundamental positives will be limited. In the short term, it is difficult for the bond market to break through the volatile market. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market weakened overall last week, with long - term bond yields rising significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.30% cumulatively last week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.46bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose slightly by 0.09bp, with the term spread continuing to widen. [3] - From November 24th to 28th, the bond market showed different trends each day. It was generally under pressure from Monday to Thursday due to various factors such as stock market performance and rumors of new regulations. On Friday, it recovered due to the weakening expectation of November PMI and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. [3] 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 140 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 64 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 716 billion yuan, an increase of 229.5 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 477.5 billion yuan, an increase of 134.3 billion yuan. The issuance volume of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds increased compared with the previous week. The net financing amount of local government bonds increased, while that of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased. [9] - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiple of 4 issued Treasury bonds was 2.52 times, that of 20 issued policy - financial bonds was 3.80 times, and that of 116 issued local government bonds was 18.59 times. [13] 2. Last Week's Important Events - In November, China's manufacturing PMI index was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from October, in line with market expectations mainly due to the recent efforts of growth - stabilizing policies and positive results from China - US economic and trade talks. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from October. Looking forward, the manufacturing PMI index may decline in December due to factors such as the impact of US high tariffs on global trade and China's exports and the continued adjustment of the domestic real - estate market. [13] 3. Real - Economy Observation - Most high - frequency data on the production side declined last week, including blast furnace operating rates, petroleum asphalt plant operating rates, daily pig iron production, and semi - steel tire operating rates. [14] - On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, while the CCFI index declined slightly. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase slightly. [14] - In terms of prices, pork prices first rose and then fell, showing an overall downward trend, while most commodity prices rose, including copper, crude oil, and rebar prices. [14] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net injection of funds through open - market operations last week was 435.8 billion yuan. [25] - R007 and DR007 both rose, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock commercial banks rose, the national and joint - stock direct - discount rates for various terms rose, the volume of pledged repurchase transactions decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market first decreased and then increased, showing an overall downward trend. [26][27][28]