甲醇：港口库存高位下降，震荡运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the port methanol market stopped falling and rebounded due to factors such as slower-than-expected unloading of foreign vessels and the backflow of port supplies to the inland. The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor, with high domestic methanol production expected to continue. Although the Middle East's seasonal gas restrictions are gradually taking effect, the imported volume in December is likely to remain high. The overall demand for methanol downstream is expected to be stable, but the oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 2050 yuan/ton [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - Port Market: Last week, the port methanol market price stopped falling and rebounded, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 1990 - 2110 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory decreased significantly, and the market price trended stronger [2]. - Inland Market: The inland methanol price rose, with the price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 1985 - 1990 yuan/ton, and the downstream receiving price in Dongying ranging from 2155 - 2175 yuan/ton [2]. - Outlook: The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor, domestic methanol production is expected to remain high, and the imported volume in December is likely to remain high. The overall demand for methanol downstream is expected to be stable, but the oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 2050 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - Spot and Futures Market: Last week, the port methanol market price stopped falling and rebounded, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 1990 - 2110 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply Situation: As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's methanol plants was 89.09%, a week-on-week increase of 0.37%. The average weekly profit of coal-based methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia was -283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.10 yuan/ton from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of -4.47%. The average weekly profit of coke oven gas-based methanol in Hebei was 149 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton from last week, a month-on-month increase of 22.13%. The average weekly profit of natural gas-based methanol in the Southwest was -530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from last week, a month-on-month decrease of 2.32% [9]. - Demand Situation: As of November 27, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 87.09%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points from last week. The production of the downstream acetic acid Sopu plant fluctuated, and the load of the Shunda plant continued to decrease. Ineos, Guangxi Huayi, and Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong continued to be under maintenance, while Yankuang resumed normal operation. Therefore, the acetic acid load increased slightly this period [11]. - Inventory Analysis: As of November 26, the total inventory of the Chinese methanol port samples was 136.35 tons, a decrease of 11.58 tons from the previous inventory of 147.93 tons, a month-on-month decrease of -7.83%. Compared with the inventory of 117.70 tons in the same period last year, it increased by 18.65 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.84% [13]. - Position Analysis: As of November 28, the long positions of the top 20 members in the methanol futures were 997,639, a decrease of 13,683, and the short positions were 1,181,791, a decrease of 23,223. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [16]. 3. Key Factors to Watch - Methanol production start - up changes [3] - Methanol port inventory changes [3]