纯碱周报：供需宽松，库存预期高位-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with tight local supplies and a rising price center. The supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance or production reduction, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1215 line [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market trended volatile and slightly stronger, with tight local supplies and a rising price center. Last week, the domestic soda ash output was 698,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15%. The comprehensive production capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.08%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 57,000 tons or 3.47%. The pending orders of soda ash were close to 11+ days, a decrease of about 1+ days. Currently, the profits of soda ash enterprises are poor, and the domestic soda ash production start-up is expected to rise at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak, with the expected output of downstream float glass decreasing and the output of photovoltaic glass remaining stable for the time being. In the context of loose supply and demand of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near future, and attention should be paid to the changes in soda ash production start-up. The price of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1215 line [2]. Factors to Watch - Changes in soda ash production start-up, progress of new capacity investment, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was dull and stable, with prices adjusting narrowly. The futures price trended volatile and stable, and the basis in the East China market showed a stable and volatile characteristic [8]. Supply Situation Analysis - As of November 27, the domestic soda ash output was 698,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15%. Among them, the output of light soda ash was 315,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 9,600 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 383,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13,100 tons. The theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the combined soda process (double tons) was -140 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 13.50 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the ammonia-soda process was -38.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [9]. Demand Situation Analysis - Photovoltaic Glass: As of November 27, the domestic in-production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,680 tons/day, a week-on-week decrease of 0.78% and a year-on-year increase of 1.29%; the capacity utilization rate was 67.82%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.54%. In December, the supply-demand gap is expected to widen, mainly because the industry demand is expected to shrink significantly near the end of the year, with terminal construction gradually stopping and component purchases decreasing, resulting in a corresponding decrease in photovoltaic glass consumption, while the decline in the supply side is relatively small. Considering the current industry inventory of more than 30 days, there may be unexpected production cuts in December. - Float Glass: As of November 27, the average start-up rate of the float glass industry was 74.52%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 78.84%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.45 percentage points. This week, there are plans to shut down some float glass production lines, and the output may decrease [13]. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of November 27, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 57,000 tons or 3.47%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 16,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 40,500 tons [15]. Position Analysis - As of November 28, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 967,337, a decrease of 526, and the short positions were 1,232,557, an increase of 11,587. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [17].