PTA期货：供需结构阶段性仍较好

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the PTA futures market showed a strong sideways movement in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The overall PTA operating rate remained low, and the domestic PTA supply continued to tighten. The demand side changed little, with the polyester operating rate remaining high, while the orders and operating rate of the weaving end decreased relatively. The PTA supply - demand remained in a tight pattern [2]. - Recently, the reduction in PTA supply has exceeded expectations, and the expected reduction in polyester operating rate has been postponed. After the cancellation of India's BIS certification, PTA exports are expected to increase. The sales of filament yarn have increased significantly, and inventory has been reduced to a low level. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of October has released positive news, which may drive some external demand orders. The PTA supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired. Although the orders and operating rate of the weaving end have decreased relatively, the expected decline in the operating rate of the downstream of polyester yarn is limited. Overall, the tight supply - demand of PX and the relatively good short - term supply - demand structure of PTA support the PTA price [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The PTA futures market fluctuated strongly in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton this week. Two PTA plants increased their load last week, but the overall operating rate was still low. The domestic PTA supply continued to tighten. During the period, the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Honggang restarted, and the 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant of Zhongtai increased its load. The PTA load was adjusted to 73.7%, an increase of 2.7%. The demand side changed little, with the polyester operating rate remaining high, and the orders and operating rate of the weaving end decreasing relatively. The raw material PX supply was still tight, and the PXN was strong, but the crude oil trend weakened. The instability of crude oil led to insufficient motivation for PTA to follow the upward trend [2]. Key Concerns - Factors to be concerned about include polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trend [4]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 4,678.00 | 4,636.00 | 42.00 | 0.91% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 137.47 | 141.98 | - 4.51 | - 3.18% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 83.97 | 84.33 | - 0.36 | - 0.43% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 66.93 | 67.69 | - 0.76 | - 1.12% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 260 | 259 | 1.00 | 0.39% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 4,641 | 4,686 | - 45.00 | - 0.96% | Daily | [5] Other Data Analysis Sections (Mainly Graph - related) - PX Market: It includes the review of PX's futures closing price, ex - factory price in East China, prices in Taiwan, South Korea, the US Gulf, etc., as well as the analysis of PX supply such as output, import volume, operating rate, and inventory [7][14]. - PTA Market: It includes the review of PTA's futures closing price and mainstream price in East China, and the analysis of PTA supply (output, operating rate, inventory), consumption (export, production of polyester products), and cost - profit [19][21][25].