棕榈油期货：震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the palm oil futures industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core View of the Report - Last week, palm oil futures prices rebounded after hitting bottom. Due to frequent disturbances in US biodiesel policies and approaching the contract roll - over period, the market fluctuated greatly. Malaysian palm oil exports declined significantly month - on - month, and there was a high probability of inventory build - up in November, which pressured near - term futures prices. However, the import profit margin was in a deeper inversion, and there were no new ship purchases. The rapid decline in the futures price led to the repair of the soybean - palm oil price spread, which significantly boosted demand. Subsequently, the production growth rate of palm oil in Malaysia decreased sharply, and the market expected to enter a production - reduction cycle. As a result, the futures price rose significantly. In the short term, as the open interest of the 01 contract decreases rapidly, the inversion of the 1 - 5 price spread may be further repaired, and palm oil is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. The operation suggestion is to go long at low prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, palm oil futures prices rebounded after hitting bottom. At the beginning of the week, US biodiesel policies caused frequent disturbances, and during the contract roll - over period, the market fluctuated greatly. The Dalian palm oil futures price repeatedly broke previous lows, leading the decline in the oil and fat sector. The fundamental situation in the producing areas remained weak, with a significant month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and a high probability of inventory build - up in November, which pressured near - term futures prices to break below the 4000 ringgit/ton mark. In China, there was a continuous large influx of palm oil, and inventories continued to increase. However, the import profit margin was in a deeper inversion, and there were no new ship purchases. The rapid decline in the futures price led to the repair of the soybean - palm oil price spread, which significantly boosted demand. The domestic spot basis rose rapidly, and traders and oil mills were strongly inclined to support prices. Later, the production data released by MPOA and SPPOMA showed a significant decline in the production growth rate. Considering the rainy season and frequent floods in the producing areas, the market expected to enter a production - reduction cycle. Additionally, the European Parliament supported a one - year postponement of the implementation of the "EU Zero - Deforestation Act", which caused the futures price to rise significantly. In the short term, as the open interest of the 01 contract decreases rapidly, the inversion of the 1 - 5 price spread may be further repaired, and palm oil is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. The operation suggestion is to go long at low prices [1] Factors to Watch - Factors to watch include Malaysian palm oil production and export data, the repair of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and biodiesel policies [2] Palm Oil Ship - Date Quotations and Import Profit Calculations | Ship Date (24 - degree) | South China (CNF) | Forward Exchange Rate | Import Cost | Futures Price | Profit Against Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | 1050 | 7.0494 | 8874 | 8644 | - 230 | | February | 1053 | 7.0356 | 8882 | 8644 | - 238 | | March | 1056 | 7.0266 | 8896 | 8644 | - 252 | [3] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The report mainly analyzes the palm oil market from aspects such as the spot - futures market, supply, demand, and cost - profit [4] Spot - Futures Market Review - The report presents a graph of the basis of the main contract, but no specific data analysis is provided [6] Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents graphs of palm oil ship - purchase quantity statistics, expected palm oil arrival volume, and Malaysian palm oil production, but no specific data analysis is provided [9][10][13] Demand Situation Analysis - The report presents graphs of China's total palm oil liquid import quantity and Malaysian palm oil export quantity, but no specific data analysis is provided [14][17] Cost - Profit Analysis - The report presents a graph of the daily profit against futures for the December palm oil ship - date, but no specific data analysis is provided [21]