银河期货航运日报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market is digesting the news of freight rate increase announcements for the second half of December, which has slightly boosted the EC futures market. There are still differences in the market's expectations for the implementation of the announced rate increases. The trading strategy suggests considering buying the EC2602 contract on dips and continuing to hold the 2 - 4 calendar spread [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The market digested the news of rate increases in the second half of December, driving the EC futures slightly up. On December 1st, EC2512 closed at 1636.7 points, up 0.34% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS Europe Line index was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% month - on - month, slightly lower than expected [5]. - The long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, and with the arrival of the traditional peak season in December, shipping company quotes are gradually released, but there are differences in the market's expectations for implementation. The demand from December to January is expected to improve, and the shipping capacity from Shanghai to Northern Europe in December slightly increased due to the delay of some ships arriving at the port at the end of November. The trading logic of the 12 and 02 contracts may diverge. The 12 contract follows the price in the second half of December, while the 02 contract is more about the expected rate increase in January. The probability of route resumption may increase after the Spring Festival [5][6]. - Trading Strategy: Consider buying the EC2602 contract on dips and continue to hold the 2 - 4 calendar spread [7][8]. - Industry News - Newcastle Port in Australia will resume operations on December 1st after being blocked by climate activists. Shipping of general cargo and alumina to the Tomago aluminum smelter was interrupted [9]. - Maersk announced improvements to its Maersk Go product, and a revised policy on late booking modifications will take effect on December 4th [9]. - US and Ukrainian negotiators had productive discussions on the peace agreement framework, but no final breakthrough has been made [9]. 3.2 Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple figures showing various container shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS Europe Line and US West Line indices, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates from Shanghai to different regions [11][15][19].