ycec(SH:600248) Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-12-01 09:39Group 1: Main Views Weekly Summary - PX prices were low at the beginning of the week and high at the end due to continued market enthusiasm for gasoline blending. Supply-side expectations are positive as the South Korean GS plant has a later shutdown plan and Zhejiang Petrochemical has a CDU maintenance plan in January. - PTA prices followed the cost increase, with slight inventory reduction and strong PX as the main reasons. PTA plant changes were few this week, and the processing fee average was still below 200 yuan/ton. Downstream polyester开工 remained around 89%, and polyester factories' equity inventory was not high, with strong rigid demand for PTA [7]. Market Outlook Forecast - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly as the short-term probability of a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine issue is low. PX supply in China has entered a relatively stable phase, and the focus is on the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. PTA inventory is decreasing in the short term, but processing fees will remain low this year. Polyester demand is generally stable in the short term, and the export market has positive news but needs time to verify. The downstream weaving market has weak new orders, and inventory is gradually increasing, with no improvement expected this year. - Overall, PX will oscillate at a high level in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA will also oscillate at a high level in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. - Strategy recommendation: Stay on the sidelines [10]. Group 2: Price Situation PX Futures - The closing price of the PX main contract on November 28 was 6,830 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 1.19%. The settlement price on November 28 was 6,780 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 0.06%. - From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was -227 yuan/ton. The average domestic spot price of PX was 6,535.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of -0.02% [15][17]. PTA Futures - The closing price of the PTA main contract on November 28 was 4,700 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 0.73%. The settlement price on November 28 was 4,672 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of -0.13%. - The average weekly price of PTA in the Chinese market was 584 US dollars/ton, up 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of 0.01%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,627.8 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of 0.05% [21][24]. Group 3: Device Operation Status PX Device - Domestic PX device load decreased slightly due to the early maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou. From November 24 - 28, the load was 88.92%, compared with 90.50% from November 17 - 21. - Asian PX device operation status: Some devices in South Korea, Indonesia, and other regions have load changes and maintenance plans [33][31]. PTA Device - Many PTA devices are under maintenance, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The weekly开工 rate decreased by 2.37%. Some devices such as Yisheng Dahua, Hainan Yisheng, and others have been shut down or are under maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined [36][37]. Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Cost - Crude oil: Although the international crude oil futures rose about 1% this week, the expectation of increased global supply still suppressed oil prices. WTI crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 58.55 US dollars/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars/barrel from November 21. Brent crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.18 US dollars/barrel from November 21. - Naphtha: European naphtha demand is weak, and the blending demand is insufficient to support prices. The average weekly price of naphtha CFR Japan was 561.78 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit was 67.81 US dollars/ton [42][44]. Supply - PX processing margin: The short-process efficiency has expanded due to gasoline blending speculation. The weekly average of PXN was 265.49 yuan/ton, a change of 2.24% from the previous period. PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 107 US dollars/ton. - PTA processing fee: The processing fee has remained low this year and is expected to improve next year. From November 24 - 28, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 209.11 yuan/ton. - Inventory: PTA inventory reduction provides bottom support for prices, but there may be negative feedback after the terminal actively reduces the load in January. As of November 28, PTA social inventory was 3.871 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous week [52][56][61]. Demand - Polyester: Overall demand is weak, which is negative for polyester product prices. The average market prices of polyester filament and staple fiber have declined to varying degrees. From November 24 - 28, the average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 60%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.19%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 71.73%. - Weaving: The domestic weaving market demand has significantly weakened, and foreign trade orders are relatively smooth. As of November 27, the opening rates of some weaving areas were stable or slightly decreased [67][72][83].